GBPUSD speculation

GBPUSD chart is a tricky one. The waves doesn't hit the Fibonacci target as well as other charts I've worked with. This, of course, may be due to my assumptions being faulty.
I have tried to look at it from several angles and still couldn't find one that fits perfectly. The idea show here is but one of many.
If the hypothesis is correct (That GBPUSD has been in a Cycle Wave 2 Correction from late 2007 till today) then there could be three possible direction the chart could take which will depend on where (3) will stop.
Scenario 1: (3) stops at 100% projection (1.32) < this is backed by a bullish divergence
Scenario 2: (3) stops at 161.8% projection (1.15)
Scenario 3: (3) stops at 261.8% projection (0.88)
Scenario 4: We are not in a Cycle Wave 2 but instead, we could be in a Cycle wave 4, a view that would add more confidence to the target in scenario 1.

Current Standing
Long Win Rate: 55%
Short Win Rate 45%
Immediate Long SL: 1.3136
Immediate Long TP: 1.4
Long P/L Raio: 4.68
Immediate Short SL: 1.49 (yikes)
Immediate Long TP: 1.1527
Short P/L Ratio: 1.09

Summary. Long biased, but need more confirmation signal.

Komentar:

Broke through support,
Changed my stance to Short bias, still no action.

Medium term short still holding.