GBPUSD: Fundamentally weak, structural short
Diupdate
We had covered our previous short for great profits last Friday, and we're now looking to rejoin this downtrend.
It's safe to short any rally, or to short if daily prices go to 1.24795 or higher.
To make sure we're in, we can divide our entry in 2 or 3 parts, and just take a smaller entry at market open, splitting risk equally between these positions*. It appears like we can expect the Pound to selloff further, so, any sign of strength is a short for us, given the pending 'time at mode' price target on chart.
I added 4 predictions, based on the key levels and speed lines, as well as the price action. If we gap down, we could expect the red path, if no gap, the black one. If we gap up, the green path wouldn't suprise me. I'd have to see what the positioning looks like for retail traders after this shock. I'd guess all longs have been stopped out by now. Before this, we had like 85% longs according to FXCM's SSI tool. A sideways path would frustrate everyone, until they'd start looking for longs again, and then, we get the big drop again.
This is just a guess, but, you can estimate the reaction when we approach the speed lines and support and resistance levels on chart. If you want to learn more about these methods, contact me privately.
Good luck,
Ivan.
PS: I'd reccomend using the weekly stop for all entries.
It's safe to short any rally, or to short if daily prices go to 1.24795 or higher.
To make sure we're in, we can divide our entry in 2 or 3 parts, and just take a smaller entry at market open, splitting risk equally between these positions*. It appears like we can expect the Pound to selloff further, so, any sign of strength is a short for us, given the pending 'time at mode' price target on chart.
I added 4 predictions, based on the key levels and speed lines, as well as the price action. If we gap down, we could expect the red path, if no gap, the black one. If we gap up, the green path wouldn't suprise me. I'd have to see what the positioning looks like for retail traders after this shock. I'd guess all longs have been stopped out by now. Before this, we had like 85% longs according to FXCM's SSI tool. A sideways path would frustrate everyone, until they'd start looking for longs again, and then, we get the big drop again.
This is just a guess, but, you can estimate the reaction when we approach the speed lines and support and resistance levels on chart. If you want to learn more about these methods, contact me privately.
Good luck,
Ivan.
PS: I'd reccomend using the weekly stop for all entries.
Catatan
(Sidenote: I'd prefer to either use wider stops, and sell gradually on each rally here. It's tempting to jump in the action with a tight stop right away but that probably means that's not the trade to take right now, since, who's there left to sell?)Catatan
Gap down.Catatan
Looks like the black guess is en route.Catatan
Prices below the flash crash key level.We can expect continued bearish pressure here, but not a good sell setup unless we get an overbought rally in the daily, ideally.
Catatan
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-16/may-urged-to-reveal-brexit-strategy-as-lawmakers-push-for-votePotential catalyst for a move again.
Catatan
Turned out the Brexit vote has to be ratified before the article 50 is invoked, this gives the Pound a boost. If we get a new weekly high, we can confidently short again.For now, we have to watch, price is right at the mid point of the flash crash range, it could top here, or it could close higher and go and make a new weekly high, luring a lot more bulls in before dropping again. Stand aside and watch.
If we get overbought CCI readings in the daily, even better!
Catatan
Potentially, this rally will top at 1.23444, but it could extend more.Let's watch tomorrow's bar, on close and then decide.
Catatan
Looks like it's between the black and red guess pathways.We can sell it again soon, once we get a time at mode signal again...not yet viable.
Catatan
Trade aktif
Thanks Carney, Draghi, let's short:Catatan
This is evolving into a higher timeframe setup, possibly a giant weekly short again. We'll have to wait for a weekly trigger, but don't follow the overexcited bulls, until further evidence this is a low risk short waiting to materialize...It'll just chop.
Note that it NEVER, ever went above the 'flash crash' key level I labeled there. When you see a daily low, on close, sitting higher than that level, worry about shorts.
For now, wait, and the short signal will trigger.
Notice the speed lines, we broke through the maximum time it could remain sideways for the daily trend to pan out. Please, don't long GBP pairs, it'll be disappointing. Probably wise to be flat GBP overall, the market is afraid of touching it, and someone is building shorts in the background.
Catatan
Wait for tomorrow's inflation news. Data should give us more information on this pair.Catatan
Entering the interesting short zone, need to wait for short term momentum chasers, and traders who got excited with the inflation news to be all in.Then by Nov 7 we can probably short under tomorrow's low.
Catatan
We topped at the red dashed line.Catatan
Downtrend speedline held, this is good for shorts.
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