Dead deadlines: Britain Returns, Trump Blames, Oil falls

22 Okt 2020

The main fun of recent times among the main newsmakers is to outline deadlines and break them. For example, Johnson said that if there is no agreement before the EU summit, the UK will leave the negotiation process. But the EU and the UK continue to negotiate. For example, yesterday's growth in the pound is a direct result of the UK's return to the negotiating table. Apparently, the British did outlast the EU. At least if you believe Barné's statement that the EU will change its approach to negotiations and begin work on a detailed text of the agreement.

It's not just the UK that enjoys setting deadlines and breaking them. Democrats in the United States, represented by Pelosi, promised on Tuesday either to end the negotiation process or to conclude an agreement. There is no agreement, but the negotiation process continues. As a result, the markets still hope for something. And after all, the Republicans from the Senate have declared that they will not vote for the option of the deal from the Democrats (at least until the elections), but hope dies last. However, you cannot trust anyone: neither Democrats nor Republicans. Especially after yesterday's demarche by Trump, who literally the day before called on everyone to get together and reach an agreement, and now he himself is destroying all agreements (meaning his tweet, in which he accused the Democrats of unwillingness to help the US economy). So, all that remains is to wait, since the wait will not be long.

The fate of the dollar and the stock market directly depends on the outcome of the negotiations. Their failure is the reason for the growth of the dollar and sales in the US stock market. Conversely, success in negotiations will inject positive buyers in the stock market and trigger a new round of dollar sell-offs.

The oil market finally got off the ground and showed a significant decline. We have already outlined the reasons more than once in our previous reviews. This once again underlines the fact that with our forecasts we are at least one step ahead of the markets, which are rather slow to react, but still react.

The rest of the news was traditionally lost against the background of these mega newsmakers. Today, it is also interesting to follow the data on jobless claims in the US, as well as the continuation of the earnigns season.