Trend analyses GBPUSD

19 Apr 2018

Hi all,

I did a very basic but clear trend analyses.

Currently GBPUSD appears to be a downtrend. We have hit a resistance zone, there is some evidence building that a counter trend move is developing.
To clarify this evidence we have to drop to the lower timeframes, in this case the 15 minutes;

In this chart we see that price came to a halt at this level, we see a Doji, followed by a candle with elongated wick, which in my opinion is a clear exhaustion signal. After this candle we see price edging higher.

I am looking to go back up untill the level indicated by the Light-blue line (1.41862). I am looking to short this when price is showing exhaustion (continuation of the Bearish/Downtrend) between this level and the 1.42458 level (Recent double top). If the latter is broken, the downtrend is non-existing.

Let me hear your opinion on this Pair

20 Apr 2018

Catatan

The mentioned level previously did not hold, we fell through. I expected the move to reach the 1.40 level before finding support, however, on the daily i had drawn a trendline which might now be of relevance. This trendline dates back to 12-19-2017, where it originated, with previous touches at the following dates;
January 3rd, 8th and 9th
April 5th

This level shows confluence with the 50% fib retracement as well;


1h chart.


Trendline visibility on the daily chart;

On this chart, altough hardly visible, we can see that the 76.4% and 76.8% retracement levels of the last move higher are in the same area as the trendline and 50% fib retracement of the larger move.