GBPJPY BEAR MARKET BEGINS
Here’s a polished and professional version of your market update:
GBP/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Macro Context
After some time away, we’re back with a critical update. Traders who entered short at 192.5, as we highlighted nearly a week ago, have secured substantial profits. The market has now broken below the ascending parallel weekly channel, which had been respected three times on the weekly timeframe, confirming a clean technical breakdown.
Current Outlook & Key Levels
• Next Target: 185 region, aligning with daily order block liquidity.
• Weekly SMA Analysis:
• Price has broken below both the 10 and 50 SMAs, with the 10 SMA now crossing below the 50, signaling weakness on the higher timeframes.
• The 100 SMA aligns with the weekly timeframe, acting as a potential support zone.
• A break below the 100 SMA could accelerate the selloff towards 181.
• Market Structure & Macro Considerations:
• No clear upper resistance on the weekly chart, but we do see weekly support at 181.
• The BOJ’s tightening policy is strengthening the Yen, adding downward pressure on GBP/JPY.
• A break of the daily order block at 190 confirms further bearish momentum.
Technical Breakdown – Weekly & Daily Insights
• Moving Averages & Trend Analysis:
• After nearly two years, the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50 SMA on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential larger correction.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud, conversion line, and baseline, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• Volume & Momentum Indicators:
• Volume Profile: Next high-value node (HVN) at 181, making it a critical level.
• RSI (Weekly): 42.02 – Bearish, rejected off its moving average at 194.
• MACD: Deep red, confirming momentum to the downside.
• ATR: Increased volatility but below its 20 EMA.
• OBV: Shows clear signs of volume leaving the market.
• ADX: Negative DMI is above positive DMI, ADX at 15.65, indicating a weak bearish trend for now.
• Contrarian Put-Call Ratio Analysis:
• On January 13th, the ratio was below the lower band, suggesting traders had overloaded on calls, a contrarian signal for a bearish move.
Lower Timeframe Market Structure – Daily & 4H
• Retracement Levels:
• Price has reached the 0.618 retracement level. A key question remains: Will this level provide support, or do we move toward 185?
• A break below 169 would invalidate the larger bullish structure since 2023, confirming a longer-term bear market.
• Daily Timeframe Insights:
• Descending Channel: Price has reacted off the lower boundary.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has not entered the upper band since January 8th, indicating sustained weakness.
• Key Support Levels: 188.995 has been broken, confirming further downside potential.
• Order Blocks: 190.668 bullish order block has been broken, confirming a structural shift toward bearish momentum.
Macro & Fundamental Outlook
• Yen Strength: Safe-haven flows and BOJ policy shifts support a continued JPY appreciation.
• Political Uncertainty: With Trump returning to the White House, geopolitical risks and uncertainty will favor the Yen as a safe-haven asset.
• Liquidity Considerations:
• Volume is light below 190, meaning moves could be quick and violent.
• Traders using high leverage should proceed with caution.
Intraday & Countertrend Considerations
• 4H & 2H Timeframe Analysis:
• 4H RSI at 29.17 – Oversold but no strong reversal confirmation yet.
• MACD deep red; ATR shows increased volatility.
• 2H ADX at 40.22, indicating strong downward momentum, though momentum exhaustion may be approaching.
• Potential Counter-Long Trade:
• 188 region could provide a short-term bounce, aligning with a historical pivot point from December 3rd.
• For those taking counter-trend longs: Risk should be kept at 0.5%.
• Stop-loss and take-profit strategy: TP could align with the bullish OB and descending channel retest near 190.6.
Final Thoughts
Key Takeaways
• Next Major Target: 185 (Daily Order Block), potential move to 181 if breakdown continues.
• Bearish Confirmation: Break below 100 SMA & Weekly Ichimoku Cloud.
• Yen Strengthening Due to BOJ Policy & Risk-Off Sentiment.
• No Signs of Bullish Reversal Yet – Counter-trend trades should be approached with caution.
Trade smart. Stay ahead.
GBP/JPY Market Update: Key Levels and Macro Context
After some time away, we’re back with a critical update. Traders who entered short at 192.5, as we highlighted nearly a week ago, have secured substantial profits. The market has now broken below the ascending parallel weekly channel, which had been respected three times on the weekly timeframe, confirming a clean technical breakdown.
Current Outlook & Key Levels
• Next Target: 185 region, aligning with daily order block liquidity.
• Weekly SMA Analysis:
• Price has broken below both the 10 and 50 SMAs, with the 10 SMA now crossing below the 50, signaling weakness on the higher timeframes.
• The 100 SMA aligns with the weekly timeframe, acting as a potential support zone.
• A break below the 100 SMA could accelerate the selloff towards 181.
• Market Structure & Macro Considerations:
• No clear upper resistance on the weekly chart, but we do see weekly support at 181.
• The BOJ’s tightening policy is strengthening the Yen, adding downward pressure on GBP/JPY.
• A break of the daily order block at 190 confirms further bearish momentum.
Technical Breakdown – Weekly & Daily Insights
• Moving Averages & Trend Analysis:
• After nearly two years, the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50 SMA on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential larger correction.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud, conversion line, and baseline, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• Volume & Momentum Indicators:
• Volume Profile: Next high-value node (HVN) at 181, making it a critical level.
• RSI (Weekly): 42.02 – Bearish, rejected off its moving average at 194.
• MACD: Deep red, confirming momentum to the downside.
• ATR: Increased volatility but below its 20 EMA.
• OBV: Shows clear signs of volume leaving the market.
• ADX: Negative DMI is above positive DMI, ADX at 15.65, indicating a weak bearish trend for now.
• Contrarian Put-Call Ratio Analysis:
• On January 13th, the ratio was below the lower band, suggesting traders had overloaded on calls, a contrarian signal for a bearish move.
Lower Timeframe Market Structure – Daily & 4H
• Retracement Levels:
• Price has reached the 0.618 retracement level. A key question remains: Will this level provide support, or do we move toward 185?
• A break below 169 would invalidate the larger bullish structure since 2023, confirming a longer-term bear market.
• Daily Timeframe Insights:
• Descending Channel: Price has reacted off the lower boundary.
• Bollinger Bands: Price has not entered the upper band since January 8th, indicating sustained weakness.
• Key Support Levels: 188.995 has been broken, confirming further downside potential.
• Order Blocks: 190.668 bullish order block has been broken, confirming a structural shift toward bearish momentum.
Macro & Fundamental Outlook
• Yen Strength: Safe-haven flows and BOJ policy shifts support a continued JPY appreciation.
• Political Uncertainty: With Trump returning to the White House, geopolitical risks and uncertainty will favor the Yen as a safe-haven asset.
• Liquidity Considerations:
• Volume is light below 190, meaning moves could be quick and violent.
• Traders using high leverage should proceed with caution.
Intraday & Countertrend Considerations
• 4H & 2H Timeframe Analysis:
• 4H RSI at 29.17 – Oversold but no strong reversal confirmation yet.
• MACD deep red; ATR shows increased volatility.
• 2H ADX at 40.22, indicating strong downward momentum, though momentum exhaustion may be approaching.
• Potential Counter-Long Trade:
• 188 region could provide a short-term bounce, aligning with a historical pivot point from December 3rd.
• For those taking counter-trend longs: Risk should be kept at 0.5%.
• Stop-loss and take-profit strategy: TP could align with the bullish OB and descending channel retest near 190.6.
Final Thoughts
Key Takeaways
• Next Major Target: 185 (Daily Order Block), potential move to 181 if breakdown continues.
• Bearish Confirmation: Break below 100 SMA & Weekly Ichimoku Cloud.
• Yen Strengthening Due to BOJ Policy & Risk-Off Sentiment.
• No Signs of Bullish Reversal Yet – Counter-trend trades should be approached with caution.
Trade smart. Stay ahead.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.