Supply demand side way movement
As I cover in greater depth in the trading tutorial To be a Successful Trader – Forget the News, traders move the markets and whilst traders can change their minds and be swayed on what way they are going to trade by many things, ultimately it is the traders who are buying and selling that makes price go up and down.
It is this push and pull between supply and demand that makes price go up and down, not other factors such as news.
News may have an influence on what a trader is thinking and what way they trade, but it does not directly change the supply and demand balance.
The two biggest drivers of traders and thus the two biggest drivers of supply and demand in markets all around the world are fear and greed. These two emotions move markets around the world every single day. Fear and greed regularly take price to levels that rationally and logically we would think price would not or should not go to.
Fear and greed are the reason why market bubbles and crashes exist and the same reason why traders can make money and lose it in the same day.
The simple reason we can see price go to extreme highs or lows and we can see price go on massive runs when normally we would expect a retrace back is because of fear and greed and also the supply/demand equation.
When price is making a run higher and building in an up-trend price will normally build from a base and as the demand builds the trend can pick up. As more and more traders recognize this trend, more and more traders pile into this market looking to make money from the move higher. This is the greed taking place.
No one wants to miss out on making money. Price will continue moving higher and more traders continue getting in the move and this is how the bubble is created.
Nobody wants to sell because they want to make as much profit as possible and to this point the trend has been clear cut and plain sailing moving higher. Obviously this is more greed kicking in.
At some point the uptrend bubble needs a trigger to burst and it often does not need much. This can be as little as traders taking profit and covering their long trades, but at some point the demand becomes weaker than the supply.
All the traders who have bought into this market are sitting on paper profits only and until they sell out they have not made a realized profit, so this market has a ton a potential orders that want to sell to realize profits, not to mention all the other people who have only just entered up near the top with other traders still piling into long trades with the uptrend trying to catch their share. Once a few traders start taking profit at the high, this market can start to reverse back lower.
Once that starts happening other traders can start to panic thinking that the market has changed and their emotions can quickly go from “greed” mode to “fear” mode and this is when traders quickly start selling out of their positions.
This is when a bubble can very quickly and abruptly burst.
This market can become like a fire sale with the traders sitting on profits trying to sell out and the traders who have entered near the top or just recently trying to get out to minimize the damage.
Before you know it, the demand is super weak and the market has gone very quickly from a strong demand situation in the uptrend, to now having a huge oversupply of traders wanting to sell with super low demand and price quickly falls lower. You can be aware of this and take advantage of it.
As one of the all-time great traders Warren Buffett says;
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
Price action trading and supply and demand is all about being contrarian and taking setups at the best times and from value areas in the market.
Being a contrarian trader is all about making sure that you are looking to find trades where the supply or demand levels are at their strongest, but also that you are also entering from points of value and not at extreme highs or lows.
It is no good entering at a really strong level, but entering from an extreme high or low where the market is about to burst and reverse against you.
It is this push and pull between supply and demand that makes price go up and down, not other factors such as news.
News may have an influence on what a trader is thinking and what way they trade, but it does not directly change the supply and demand balance.
The two biggest drivers of traders and thus the two biggest drivers of supply and demand in markets all around the world are fear and greed. These two emotions move markets around the world every single day. Fear and greed regularly take price to levels that rationally and logically we would think price would not or should not go to.
Fear and greed are the reason why market bubbles and crashes exist and the same reason why traders can make money and lose it in the same day.
The simple reason we can see price go to extreme highs or lows and we can see price go on massive runs when normally we would expect a retrace back is because of fear and greed and also the supply/demand equation.
When price is making a run higher and building in an up-trend price will normally build from a base and as the demand builds the trend can pick up. As more and more traders recognize this trend, more and more traders pile into this market looking to make money from the move higher. This is the greed taking place.
No one wants to miss out on making money. Price will continue moving higher and more traders continue getting in the move and this is how the bubble is created.
Nobody wants to sell because they want to make as much profit as possible and to this point the trend has been clear cut and plain sailing moving higher. Obviously this is more greed kicking in.
At some point the uptrend bubble needs a trigger to burst and it often does not need much. This can be as little as traders taking profit and covering their long trades, but at some point the demand becomes weaker than the supply.
All the traders who have bought into this market are sitting on paper profits only and until they sell out they have not made a realized profit, so this market has a ton a potential orders that want to sell to realize profits, not to mention all the other people who have only just entered up near the top with other traders still piling into long trades with the uptrend trying to catch their share. Once a few traders start taking profit at the high, this market can start to reverse back lower.
Once that starts happening other traders can start to panic thinking that the market has changed and their emotions can quickly go from “greed” mode to “fear” mode and this is when traders quickly start selling out of their positions.
This is when a bubble can very quickly and abruptly burst.
This market can become like a fire sale with the traders sitting on profits trying to sell out and the traders who have entered near the top or just recently trying to get out to minimize the damage.
Before you know it, the demand is super weak and the market has gone very quickly from a strong demand situation in the uptrend, to now having a huge oversupply of traders wanting to sell with super low demand and price quickly falls lower. You can be aware of this and take advantage of it.
As one of the all-time great traders Warren Buffett says;
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
Price action trading and supply and demand is all about being contrarian and taking setups at the best times and from value areas in the market.
Being a contrarian trader is all about making sure that you are looking to find trades where the supply or demand levels are at their strongest, but also that you are also entering from points of value and not at extreme highs or lows.
It is no good entering at a really strong level, but entering from an extreme high or low where the market is about to burst and reverse against you.
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