Sell GBP Anticipating Bad GBP Data

10 Okt 2017

Today is generally a quite day. In term of price action thus far USD is most bearish vs AUD most bullish.

The tier 1 event today however is with GBP. I do not think it is going to have huge impact but nevertheless the GBPCHF is very Net Long and looks like the market in general is expecting supportive GBP data. My analysis shows otherwise and I'd like to be there if market is wrong.

Price action is still mildly bullish for the pair and I've set a Limit Short around the 1.29 level. If it's not hit, I'll use market order to enter closer to data release. If data is bad as I anticipated I expect strong reverse reaction to take out Long's Stop-loss. If data is bad however, I'd take the trade off, I may also take it off if initial market reaction show that it doesn't care for the data, in which case I think retail sentiment can take over and push the pair above 1.29 level.

10 Okt 2017

Catatan

Data is good. It's funny how you can guess the actual data just within 1 minute of the release price action. Quant bots/Large players has a small window leg up to retail traders with their Premium News service indeed. Nevertheless, I've flipped my position around and went Long. As of now the general sentiment is to go Long and with the supportive data I think it can finally break the Previous Day High of 1.29

10 Okt 2017

Catatan

Buy Rumor Sell Fact at work => so many are Taking Profit now that send the pair down.

I still believe the uptrend has been relatively intact thus far although I must admit I did not fully anticipate that so many people are right on the trade and start TP en masses. So much for my attempt to be a smart-ass.

The issue now thought is despite this I think long term player may consider buying at the lower price level and I'd rather need to have some staying power to take advantage. I won't exit everything but I don't intend to hold a full position either.