Cup & Handle Pattern confirmed?

4 Okt 2019

I originally bought this stock early in 2019 thinking it was breaking out of the same pattern I'm illustrating now so I could be wrong again (I'm not buying more here), but I held through that initial shakeout and continue to hold and am encouraged by the recent price action in this stock. (I hold a small position in this stock - only 85 shares in my Roth IRA). Looks like it might finally be ready to go for the move I thought would originally happen. That said, there is an immediate long-term support resistance hurdle to cross just a couple dollars above current price. On the long-term chart which I'm using, you can see price is starting to get ahead of itself, it's getting pretty high above the uptrend line. I'm hoping that means it's starting to go parabolic, but usually it means a short-term pullback is in order. It's probably a lot of risk for a short-term investor but my initial stop loss would be just below $14. If price got below that it would be a very bad sign and likely a failure of this long-term chart pattern as it would break the uptrend line and break below the strong red candle from May 2019. I'm a long-term investor so I don't mind taking on more risk - I'm not playing for peanuts, I'm trying to hit home runs which usually take time and the everyday price swings don't get me going too much, I'm more concerned with the price action on the long-term chart pattern.

This is not advice, just a simple observation of a long-term chart pattern, I haven't really looked into the fundamentals of this stock at all and therefore, decide for yourself and trade at your own risk.

9 Jun 2020

Catatan

Still holding, held through the most recent shakeout due to covid panic but I also did not buy more shares. I'm not kicking myself about that because price was getting close to my stop loss level and I definitely wasn't thinking about getting more shares at that level, I was starting to consider getting out. Anyway, I'm glad price has recovered and currently looks like it wants to breakout above the $28 level. A monthly close above that level would be very bullish with no more resistance until the $36 - $48 wide range topping pattern from 2006 - 2008. I anticipate there will be significant resistance in that range (if it gets there) but I wouldn't be complaining if I were wrong on that either. I want to at least break even on this but also give it room to potentially run so my new stop loss would be a monthly close below $19.

14 Jul 2020

Catatan

Looking good. And that's no resistance on a long-term chart until $36. Pretty confident it will get to at least that level (but you never know) and I will adjust my stop loss at that time.

14 Jul 2020

Catatan

I also like that the stocktwits are pretty quiet on it, it's not full of fan boys... yet at least.

27 Jul 2020

Catatan

Not sure if anyone cares or is still paying attention to this but for my own records, I set a stop loss of $26 which protects 50% of the profit I have in this from the recent high it set around $33 (entered around $19). Otherwise I would sell on a monthly close below $28 which might get triggered soon if the market overall decides to sell off into the election, at which point I could consider re-entry depending on how the chart looks. Hope it keeps rallying on the monthly chart but anyway that's what I'm doing for the record.

31 Agu 2020

Catatan

Price nearly hit my open order stop loss of $26 but I'm still in for now. I'll wait until close to the end of today to decide what to do with this, needs a good rally today to get back above $28, but if it's pretty close to $26, I might just leave the open order in place, not sell yet and let it stop me out at $26. If I get stopped out, I would keep an eye on it and maybe re-enter later but will have to see.. Anyway we'll see what happens today.

31 Agu 2020

Catatan

I'm going to leave my stop as an open order at $26 and not sell on the monthly close below $28 since price is currently so close to my open order stop loss. I would be shocked if $26 wasn't hit in the near future, might even happen in the last 15 minutes of August, but if somehow it's not hit I'll continue to ride this out.

3 Sep 2020

Catatan

I was stopped out this morning, trade executed just a few cents under my stop loss of $26. I will keep an eye on this stock and maybe re-enter at a later date if I see a signal to trade on. Anyway for now I'm out, trade closed.

9 Sep 2020

Catatan

Thought I would mention what I'm looking for re-entry - I would consider going long again if price can make a monthly close above the most recent high that was set on a monthly closing basis (around $29.25 price made a monthly close and then opened 2 months around that level, so I'm looking for a monthly close above that, but above $30 would be more definitive). Otherwise I may take a shot at it if it drops to around $20 or a little lower. I would just be hoping that price would end up making a bottom somewhere in there and my stop loss would potentially be pretty tight but also risky because it would be on a monthly closing basis again. Anyway nothing to do for now, I will continue to keep an eye on it and maybe create a new idea if I decide to re-enter.

30 Nov 2020

Catatan

Wow what a month! I won't be re-entering this trade as price blasted through where I was considering re-entry on a monthly closing basis. Congrats to anyone who participated in that move!

12 Agu 2022

Catatan

May consider re-entering this if it can get down to the 200-mo. EMA (which is currently around $22 but it's risky and still has a long way to go before that. Price could have already found support here just above the 50-mo. EMA but that's not attractive enough for me to try to trade, would be worth more of a shot to take for a short to intermediate-term trader.

30 Sep 2022

Catatan

If the Nasdaq falls to it's 200-mo. EMA I think this stock will fall considerably below it's 200-mo. EMA. I would wait for the Nasdaq to get to it's 200-mo. EMA before potentially buying back into this stock but at the same time this patter will have completely broken down it that happens. Anyway, I'll keep an eye on it.

30 Nov 2022

Catatan

Bottom may be in for the Nasdaq and, as a result, this stock. See my other idea about the Nasdaq Composite Index. I think this stock depends on however the Nasdaq moves in general. With that said, I'm not going to re-enter just yet because it's not clear that the Nasdaq has bottomed.

30 Des 2022

Catatan

I think the Nasdaq may test it's 200-mo. EMA sometime in 2023 and would consider buying a position back into this stock if/when that happens. If it happens this stock would be even cheaper than the last low that it made on the monthly chart.

3 Jan 2023

Catatan

Edit to my last comment *would "probably" be even cheaper if the Nasdaq heads lower in 2023 to the 200-mo. EMA.