Long Fetch AI/Usdt

30 Sep

Reasoning:
-Datadash brought to my attention, it was featured in the last dash report closer to the lows,
-Broken free of two diagonal resistances
-retesting the resistance of a reverse head and shoulder as support
-Above 21, 50, 100, 200 day moving average
-above bull market support band.
-Many of these potential support levels are converging on the same price range from $1.5-1.35
-BTC has broken above BMSB and may have just created a MSB that could lead it to new highs.
-An immediate indicator of momentum would be the 21day moving average, nick from data dash frequently references this one for swing trades in the time frame i am familiar with.
- the support zone from 0.7 to 1.0 is a long term resistance turned support, and Fetch has bounced strongly from there.
-Showing many similarities and a possible repeat of the move it had from March 2021 to sept/Oct 2021 with a double peak wherein the second is slightly higher to retest the upper bound of its long term channel.
-I plan on being very aggressive with entry and allowing a large loss percentage wise in my trading account if i am wrong because of the confluence of so many factors listed above. I'm also young and my account value is not particularly large relative to a professional trader. I can make the money back in a short period of time with my day job.
MACRO
-SPY at ATH and generally markets run up into elections, before experiencing their correction
-The bear case is that
BTC is not able to maintain MSB or above BMSB
Fetch breaks below relevant MAs and the support region it SHOULD have created by breaking above its reverse H&S pattern

I will attempt to conjure up a Trailing stop loss based on momentum indicators like the 21DMA or even longer frame ones depending on my risk/pain tolerance.

My entry and exit strategy really needs work but i will attempt to remove emotion from the exit portion of this trade. Entries still unkown ATP.
HARDSTOP at 1.335 under all MAs

I would have included More TImeframe views as well as the btc chart but i dont have a premium plan yet

1 Okt

Trade aktif

BUY 650@1.58
BUY 600@1.522
TOTAL 1250@1.55
Right now the plan is to add into a dip all the way down to the 100DMA

1 Okt

Komentar

Buy 750 @noname1.56
TOTAL 2000 @1.555ish

EXIT STRATEGY:
EVERY time there has been a daily close below the 20W SMA, it has signaled reversal downside. closes above have not indicated a bullish reversal. I am not sure if i should respect this theory until we have seen significant gains from here. I think i should maintain the hardstop below ALL relavant points as to not get faked out before the move.

1 Okt

Komentar

BTC&SPY pullback. Alts come down with em
-BUY 1000 @ 1.45
Total 3000@ 1.52

2 Okt

Komentar

Daily candle closed and held, and bounced directly from our stop at the 20w SMA. adding more, continuing the aggressive stance on this trade for now. I will remove the hard stop, and continue with planned SL of BMSB 20wsma.

BUY 500@ 1.503
TOTAL 3500 @ 1.518

2 Okt

Komentar

as expected, we approach the 50,100,200dma and i am adding, sticking to the plan
BUY500@1.424
TOTAL 4000@ 1.506

4 Okt

Komentar

there was a daily close below the 20w sma, we did not exit position. i mentioned prior that the close below 20wsma is indicative of a reversal when there has been a LARGE move. relative to past price action this is not the case with FET. We are also not adding here, setting a mental stop below the lows of the day that closed below the 20wsma at 1.329. approximately where we originally said we were to have our stop.
4000@1.506

9 Okt

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

TRADE CLOSED AT A LOSS.
Sold 4000@ 1.32 for 5280
Bought 4000 @ 1.506 for 6024
TOTAL= -744

Remarks:
If i had initially Sold at the first daily close below the 20wsma, i would have sold at 1.37 for $544 loss. i decided to stick with the plan of not selling at this trigger unless we saw momentum.

SPY is at all time highs, and btc was dropping even though spy was rallying. strange. the BTCUSDT/SPY chart shows there is no real correlation between the two.

I will absolutely consider reopenning a position in FET, if we can see it get back above relevant momentum indicators , I would also like to have Datadash flip their views to bullish, since as of late Nick does not see many reasons to be openning positions. I realize that this ticker had been posted to the dash report long before i entered a position, and i should be more vgilant about getting in when he initially recommends things.

I will open a new trade idea if i re-enter