IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/08]: IO Prices Extend Uptrend
SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 1.30/ton higher by 21/Feb (Fri).
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.95/ton on 17/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.25/ton on 21/Feb (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.30/ton on 21/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.10/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices crossed the pivot point of USD 106.85/ton and R1 point of USD 108.10/ton during the week, closing between the R1 point and the pivot point at USD 107.25/ton.
Volume peaked on 20/Feb (Thu) as investor sentiment improved amid signs of recovery in China’s property sector.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
Prices climbed to their highest levels in more than four months as steel consumption recovery signs brightened demand outlook in top consumer China, where stimulus hopes have revived.
Prices also surged as supply tightened after an Australian cyclone Zelia likely disrupted seven million tons of shipments.
BHP and Rio Tinto reported weaker earnings due to falling iron ore prices but emphasized their strong position in the energy transition, particularly through copper assets. While the recent price rally provides temporary relief for major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, they face significant short- and long-term risks.
China's port IO stockpiles dropped by 0.78 million tons (-0.52%) WoW to 149.18 million tons for the week ending 21/Feb as per MMI data.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 16.33% below its last 5-year average (USD 129.66/ton).
Short-Term MA Sustains Bullishness amid Strong Industrial Outlook
Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) triggered a rally in iron ore with prices rising 5.2% over three weeks before losing steam on 14/Feb. Following tentative signs of China's property sector recovery, iron ore prices regained upward momentum this week.
Prices Trend Upwards Amid Potential Long-term Moving Average Convergence
IO prices are trading well above 100-day & 200-day DMAs. The narrowing gap between the long-term moving averages suggests a high possibility of convergence which could further confirm the uptrend. Will prices revert towards longer-term averages or sustain their upward trajectory?
MACD Signals Weakening Bullish Momentum, RSI Cross Portends Bears Ahead
The MACD line is near the signal line suggesting weakening momentum of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 57.59, at neutral levels as it hovers around the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 59.65. RSI MA forming a death-cross portends bearishness ahead.
Volatility Steady & IO Prices Closed Below 61.8% Fibonacci Level Amid Uptrend
Volatility remained steady this week. Prices traded between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) and the 50% level (USD 105.40/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.40/ton) as support.
Buying Pressure Softened & IO Prices Trade Below Upper Bollinger Band Levels
Buying pressure softened during second half of last week based on A/D indicator. IO prices climbed from the basis band to the upper band during the week and closed within the range at USD 107.25.
China’s Two Sessions: A Key Catalyst for Iron Ore Market Swings?
China's Two Sessions (Lianghui) is an annual political gathering in China where key economic and industrial policies are set. This can significantly impact China linked assets including iron ore. Over the past four years (2021-2024), prices have shown a pattern of pre-meeting speculation-driven gains, followed by declines due to policy interventions or cautious economic targets. While 2021 and 2022 saw initial optimism fueling price spikes before corrections, 2023 and 2024 featured steady declines amid weak demand and rising inventories. This trend underscores China's policy direction as a key driver of iron ore market fluctuations.
Source: SGX
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 101.6k lots and 81.4k across all futures expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 142.7k and 40.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,101,024 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 984,935 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 102.3k lots and 90.9k across all futures and options expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 145.8k and 47.4k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,370,376 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 1,234,295 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the past month. Managed Money participants have switched from net short to being net long in the last two weeks. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of last year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
IO prices surged to a four-month high, driven by a brighter China steel demand outlook amid renewed stimulus hopes. This mirrors past trends where economic support hopes drove pre-session gains in 2021 & 2022. Current rally signals renewed optimism of stronger policy support from Two Sessions.
IO prices sustained uptrend last week save a pull back on Friday T+1 session. The MACD signals weakening bullishness while the RSI MA formed a death-cross portending bearishness ahead. IO prices rose from above 50% Fibonacci levels to close marginally below 61.8% levels indicating signaling bullishness.
Against this backdrop, this paper posits a long position in SGX Iron Ore Futures expiring on 28th March 2025 (FEFH2025) with an entry at USD 106.20/ton combined with a take profit level at USD 111.60/ton and a stop-loss at USD 101.70/ton resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.95/ton on 17/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.25/ton on 21/Feb (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.30/ton on 21/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.10/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices crossed the pivot point of USD 106.85/ton and R1 point of USD 108.10/ton during the week, closing between the R1 point and the pivot point at USD 107.25/ton.
Volume peaked on 20/Feb (Thu) as investor sentiment improved amid signs of recovery in China’s property sector.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
Prices climbed to their highest levels in more than four months as steel consumption recovery signs brightened demand outlook in top consumer China, where stimulus hopes have revived.
Prices also surged as supply tightened after an Australian cyclone Zelia likely disrupted seven million tons of shipments.
BHP and Rio Tinto reported weaker earnings due to falling iron ore prices but emphasized their strong position in the energy transition, particularly through copper assets. While the recent price rally provides temporary relief for major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, they face significant short- and long-term risks.
China's port IO stockpiles dropped by 0.78 million tons (-0.52%) WoW to 149.18 million tons for the week ending 21/Feb as per MMI data.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 16.33% below its last 5-year average (USD 129.66/ton).
Short-Term MA Sustains Bullishness amid Strong Industrial Outlook
Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) triggered a rally in iron ore with prices rising 5.2% over three weeks before losing steam on 14/Feb. Following tentative signs of China's property sector recovery, iron ore prices regained upward momentum this week.
Prices Trend Upwards Amid Potential Long-term Moving Average Convergence
IO prices are trading well above 100-day & 200-day DMAs. The narrowing gap between the long-term moving averages suggests a high possibility of convergence which could further confirm the uptrend. Will prices revert towards longer-term averages or sustain their upward trajectory?
MACD Signals Weakening Bullish Momentum, RSI Cross Portends Bears Ahead
The MACD line is near the signal line suggesting weakening momentum of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 57.59, at neutral levels as it hovers around the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 59.65. RSI MA forming a death-cross portends bearishness ahead.
Volatility Steady & IO Prices Closed Below 61.8% Fibonacci Level Amid Uptrend
Volatility remained steady this week. Prices traded between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) and the 50% level (USD 105.40/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.40/ton) as support.
Buying Pressure Softened & IO Prices Trade Below Upper Bollinger Band Levels
Buying pressure softened during second half of last week based on A/D indicator. IO prices climbed from the basis band to the upper band during the week and closed within the range at USD 107.25.
China’s Two Sessions: A Key Catalyst for Iron Ore Market Swings?
China's Two Sessions (Lianghui) is an annual political gathering in China where key economic and industrial policies are set. This can significantly impact China linked assets including iron ore. Over the past four years (2021-2024), prices have shown a pattern of pre-meeting speculation-driven gains, followed by declines due to policy interventions or cautious economic targets. While 2021 and 2022 saw initial optimism fueling price spikes before corrections, 2023 and 2024 featured steady declines amid weak demand and rising inventories. This trend underscores China's policy direction as a key driver of iron ore market fluctuations.
Source: SGX
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 101.6k lots and 81.4k across all futures expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 142.7k and 40.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,101,024 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 984,935 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 102.3k lots and 90.9k across all futures and options expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 145.8k and 47.4k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,370,376 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 1,234,295 lots as of 07/Feb.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the past month. Managed Money participants have switched from net short to being net long in the last two weeks. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of last year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
IO prices surged to a four-month high, driven by a brighter China steel demand outlook amid renewed stimulus hopes. This mirrors past trends where economic support hopes drove pre-session gains in 2021 & 2022. Current rally signals renewed optimism of stronger policy support from Two Sessions.
IO prices sustained uptrend last week save a pull back on Friday T+1 session. The MACD signals weakening bullishness while the RSI MA formed a death-cross portending bearishness ahead. IO prices rose from above 50% Fibonacci levels to close marginally below 61.8% levels indicating signaling bullishness.
Against this backdrop, this paper posits a long position in SGX Iron Ore Futures expiring on 28th March 2025 (FEFH2025) with an entry at USD 106.20/ton combined with a take profit level at USD 111.60/ton and a stop-loss at USD 101.70/ton resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
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Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.