2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Third consecutive bear bar on the daily chart but the selling is weak. Bears barely push the market down and we are still 200 points above 20000. The bear channel held but chances are decent that it breaks tomorrow and we either go more sideways 20200 - 20400 or test 20500 again.
comment: Bears made new lows, which is nice but the pullback is still minor on the daily chart. Anything below 20200 would surprise me and then we could see some acceleration down to 20000. Much more likely is a break of the bear trend line around 20300 and a retest of 20500+
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: Bulls buying all the dips and it’s probably just a matter of time when the bears give up again. All bear bars below 20300 look weak and bears have tried 6 times now to break below the channel and have failed. Bullish targets for tomorrow are 20300, 20370 and then 20500.
Invalidation is below 20200.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. Best they can hope for tomorrow is sideways between 20200 - 20300. How likely is it that Jpow grows some, tells the markets they are insane and no more rate cuts? Yeah.
Invalidation is above 20600.
short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bullish above for 20400 or higher. Bearish below 20200 for 20000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open and then selling at the bear trend line. The move down accelerated at a weird time and price, so I cut my profitable shorts too early. FML.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Third consecutive bear bar on the daily chart but the selling is weak. Bears barely push the market down and we are still 200 points above 20000. The bear channel held but chances are decent that it breaks tomorrow and we either go more sideways 20200 - 20400 or test 20500 again.
comment: Bears made new lows, which is nice but the pullback is still minor on the daily chart. Anything below 20200 would surprise me and then we could see some acceleration down to 20000. Much more likely is a break of the bear trend line around 20300 and a retest of 20500+
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20500
bull case: Bulls buying all the dips and it’s probably just a matter of time when the bears give up again. All bear bars below 20300 look weak and bears have tried 6 times now to break below the channel and have failed. Bullish targets for tomorrow are 20300, 20370 and then 20500.
Invalidation is below 20200.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. Best they can hope for tomorrow is sideways between 20200 - 20300. How likely is it that Jpow grows some, tells the markets they are insane and no more rate cuts? Yeah.
Invalidation is above 20600.
short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bullish above for 20400 or higher. Bearish below 20200 for 20000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open and then selling at the bear trend line. The move down accelerated at a weird time and price, so I cut my profitable shorts too early. FML.
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