#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below.
I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below.
I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you.
current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000
key levels: 22000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points.
Invalidation is above 23000.
short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though.
medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
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Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.