FCPO Outlook: Key Levels and Strategies for the Week Ahead

6 jam yang lalu

Recent Market Overview
FCPOJ2025 FCPOK2025 FCPO1!

The market, both for outright contracts and spread contracts, has shown significant signs of consolidation recently. As such, I believe a comprehensive analysis is necessary to identify contracts worth monitoring, key price levels to watch, and whether the market leans bullish or bearish in the near term.


April Contract
From Friday’s daily chart closing price, it seems that the price has found support around 4,130 points. However, the overall trend remains bearish, as evidenced by a clear double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline on the daily chart.

I foresee two possible scenarios for the upcoming price action: consolidation or continued decline. If the market consolidates, the range will likely be between 4,120 and 4,500 points. If the market continues to decline next week, I expect resistance around the 4,000-point level, which is approximately 300 points below the current price.


May Contract
Friday’s closing price on the daily chart suggests that the May contract has also found support around 4,100 points. The recent price action mirrors that of the April contract, showing a double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline.

However, the 4,000-point support level for the May contract appears stronger than that of the April contract. Currently, the benchmark contract is the April contract. Does this imply that when the May contract becomes the benchmark (on February 17), the price will find support at 4,000 points and then reverse into an uptrend?

If my hypothesis is correct, the upcoming price action will likely involve a third test of the neckline and consolidation, as we await the May contract to become the benchmark.


Summary of Outright Contracts
Based on the April and May contracts, I anticipate a relatively stronger market next week, with a potential third test of the neckline around 4,500 points for the April contract.

Additionally, Chicago soybean oil futures showed no significant decline this week, closing at 45.72 points. The price still has approximately 3.30 points of room before hitting resistance at 49.00–50.00 points. If prices fail to rise and instead decline on Monday, a reassessment will be necessary.


APR25 - JUL25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract shows a clear ongoing downtrend. The observed price range is roughly between 100 and 200 points, with Friday’s closing price at 122 points.

I do not find this contract appealing for entry. If outright contract resistance is at 4,000 points, the support level for this spread contract is likely around 100 points. With only 22 points of downside room to that support level, the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable for short positions. For long positions, the price must first test 100 points and show signs of reversal before considering an entry.


MAY25 - AUG25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the MAY25 - AUG25 spread contract also shows a downtrend, though the pattern is less well-defined compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract. Key support and resistance levels are estimated at 50, 100, 150, and 200 points. Friday’s closing price was 122 points.

Compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread, I find this contract less favorable for trading due to its less distinct overall pattern.


JUN25 - SEP25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract also indicates a downtrend, with prices having tested the final support zone of 0–20 points. Friday’s closing price was 37 points, showing signs of a rebound.

The overall pattern appears relatively well-formed, and there is sufficient upside potential, with resistance levels at 80 and 150 points. If the outright contract price action aligns with my forecast for a rebound to the neckline, this spread contract could rise to 150 points.


Summary of Spread Contracts
After analyzing these three spread contracts, I believe the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract is the most reasonable for a long position next week, followed by the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract.

If Monday’s price action does not align with expectations and declines instead, a reassessment will be necessary. I plan to enter a long position in the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract on Monday. If prices reverse downward after entry, I will implement a stop-loss at 17 points. If outright contracts trend downward on Monday, I will refrain from entering the market.