EURUSD: Bearish Reversal Idea, Seasonal Analysis

8 Jan 2023

Bearish Indications

• Resistance Zone at 1.06428
• Seasonal Analysis show EXY remains Bearish in January 60% of times.
• DXY is in a Bearish Trend on Weekly time-frame.
• Gartley’s XABCD the point D indicates a reversal in the Zone of 1.06428 to 1.06605
• Monthly Seasonal analysis shows DXY remain Bullish in January 60%.
• EXY remained Bullish in December 2022 which indicated to a point that seasonal are working so far.
• Weekly Seasonal Analysis show EURUSD remain Bearish in 3rd Week of January
• DXY is at a significant Support Zone 103.780 from where a bounce back is possible.
• Slight Divergence spotted on ChandeMO Oscillator on EXY .

Bullish Indications

• 4hrs time-frame Higher Highs and Higher Lows formation.
• 4hrs time-frame Three White Soldiers candle pattern.
• Significant Support Zone at 1.06322
• EXY is in a Bullish Trend on Weekly Time frame.
• Weekly Seasonal Analysis shows EURUSD remains Bullish in 2nd Week of January.
• On Weekly timeframe DXY price action show an inverted hammer candle which indicates sellers are in control.
• Traditionally EXY and DXY are negatively correlated.

Biased: Short

Trade PLAN (Short)

Entry: 1.06556 (Fib Lvl 78.6%)
TP: 1.05711 (Fib Lvl 38.2%)
Stop Loss: 1.06881 ( Support area / Higher High/ Fib Lvl 88.6%)
Risk/Reward: 1:2.39

N.B.
Manage your Risk Accordingly.

9 Jan 2023

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Trade is closed due to Stop Loss hit but, we can look into this theory in a broader terms.