EURUSD: targeting overbought momentum
It was a relatively calm week with respect to economic news in the US. Initial jobless claims in the US in May reached 231K, a bit higher from forecasted 210K. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May reached the level of 67.4, far below 76 expected by the markets.
The EU economy is modestly picking up, after a period of stagnation. The retail sales in March increased by 0.7% on a yearly basis or 0.8% for the month, and went out from a negative territory posted since the beginning of this year. However, the largest EU economy is still coping with industrial production as it still moves with a downtrend, reaching -0.4% in March.
A lack of currently significant economic data kept the currency pair in a relatively calm mood during the previous week. Eurusd was moving in a relatively low range between levels 1.08 down to 1.072, ending the week at 1.076. The RSI crossed the level of 50, indicating that the market is currently set for an overbought momentum in the near future period. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are still moving as one single line, not providing an indication whether the actual cross occurred or not.
Inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead. This implies a possibility for some higher volatility, especially if posted figures are not in line with the market expectations. During the previous week the currency pair touched the 1.08 resistance line only on one occasion, which leaves some space for this level to be tested again in the week ahead. On the opposite side, it should not be expected some significant moves. The currency pair might modestly reverse back toward 1.075 level, while moves below have currently lower probability.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Inflation Rate final for April in Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for both Germany and the Euro Zone, GDP growth rate second estimate for Q1 in the EuroZone, Inflation Rate final for April in the EuroZone
USD:. Producers Price Index for April, Fed Chair Powell speech, Inflation rate for April, Retail Sales for April, Building Permits preliminary for April
The EU economy is modestly picking up, after a period of stagnation. The retail sales in March increased by 0.7% on a yearly basis or 0.8% for the month, and went out from a negative territory posted since the beginning of this year. However, the largest EU economy is still coping with industrial production as it still moves with a downtrend, reaching -0.4% in March.
A lack of currently significant economic data kept the currency pair in a relatively calm mood during the previous week. Eurusd was moving in a relatively low range between levels 1.08 down to 1.072, ending the week at 1.076. The RSI crossed the level of 50, indicating that the market is currently set for an overbought momentum in the near future period. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are still moving as one single line, not providing an indication whether the actual cross occurred or not.
Inflation data is set to be released during the week ahead. This implies a possibility for some higher volatility, especially if posted figures are not in line with the market expectations. During the previous week the currency pair touched the 1.08 resistance line only on one occasion, which leaves some space for this level to be tested again in the week ahead. On the opposite side, it should not be expected some significant moves. The currency pair might modestly reverse back toward 1.075 level, while moves below have currently lower probability.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: Inflation Rate final for April in Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for both Germany and the Euro Zone, GDP growth rate second estimate for Q1 in the EuroZone, Inflation Rate final for April in the EuroZone
USD:. Producers Price Index for April, Fed Chair Powell speech, Inflation rate for April, Retail Sales for April, Building Permits preliminary for April
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