EurUsd Analysis | Rebound in short term?

11 Nov

The euro hit a 4-1/2-month low against the U.S. dollar as investors worried about possible U.S. tariffs which would hurt the euro area's economy. The greenback was within striking distance of the levels seen right after the U.S. presidential election against major currencies as markets focused on data and Federal Reserve speakers and waited for clarity about future U.S. policy. Analysts expect measures from President-elect Donald Trump to put upward pressure on inflation and bond yields while limiting the Fed's scope to ease policy.

However, they see investors trading on economic data and clues about the rate outlook before seeing what Trump's policies would actually be in practice. Market participants flagged that the sensitivity of the euro to the threat of higher U.S. import tariffs was evident late Friday, when media reported that Trump was lining up Robert Lighthizer, seen as a hawk on trade, to run his trade policy. However, two sources familiar with the matter said Lighthizer has not been asked by Trump to return to the agency overseeing trade policy.

That said, from a technical point of view, the pair is very interesting to follow in the short term, if we look at the 4H chart, we have reached a very important support area, so we do not exclude some bullish movement. If the pair will trigger a technical bounce it should do so with at least 3 legs, and in this case it could still form a bullish Head and Shoulders Pattern (not shown on the chart, but quite simple to imagine). The most speculative bulls are trying to take long positions on the resistance, the more cautious Traders could wait for the formation of the right shoulder taking a position with a stop loss under the Head.

Thanks for watching.