EUR/USD: Tech outlook and review...
During the course of yesterday’s sessions, the single currency tumbled lower from the H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1.0771, and nudged into the 1.07 boundary going into the later hours of the US segment. The selloff, as far as we can see, was bolstered by a long-term weekly trendline resistance extended from the low 0.8231, and shows that the weekly candles could rotate back down as far as the weekly support area at 1.0333-1.0502.While this may be true, we have to take into account that the 1.07 handle is also seen reinforced by a daily support level coming in at 1.0710. This, according to the daily timeframe, could springboard the unit back up to the aforementioned weekly trendline, or the nearby 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873/ weekly resistance at 1.0819 lurking just above it.
Our suggestions: With offers seen holding firm at a weekly trendline resistance and bids currently controlling this pressure from a daily support, there is somewhat of a tug-of-war taking place between these two higher-timeframe structures. To confirm a bearish stance in this market, a daily close below the support would be ideal as this would, in our estimation, force the H4 candles to close below not only 1.07, but also the nearby H4 broken Quasimodo line at 1.0685. The space seen below these two levels on the H4 is striking, with little seen standing in the way of the pair from dropping down to at least 1.06.
Although buying from 1.07 is valid according to the daily structure, we remain hesitant. Buying against weekly flow, even with room seen for H4 price to swing back up to the H4 Quasimodo resistance, is not something our team would stamp high probability.
Data points to consider: US JOLTS report at 3pm.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for at least a decisive H4 close below the H4 broken Quasimodo line at 1.0685 before considering selling this market. A retest of 1.0685, followed up by a reasonably sized H4 bear candle would be enough to justify a short entry (stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
Our suggestions: With offers seen holding firm at a weekly trendline resistance and bids currently controlling this pressure from a daily support, there is somewhat of a tug-of-war taking place between these two higher-timeframe structures. To confirm a bearish stance in this market, a daily close below the support would be ideal as this would, in our estimation, force the H4 candles to close below not only 1.07, but also the nearby H4 broken Quasimodo line at 1.0685. The space seen below these two levels on the H4 is striking, with little seen standing in the way of the pair from dropping down to at least 1.06.
Although buying from 1.07 is valid according to the daily structure, we remain hesitant. Buying against weekly flow, even with room seen for H4 price to swing back up to the H4 Quasimodo resistance, is not something our team would stamp high probability.
Data points to consider: US JOLTS report at 3pm.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for at least a decisive H4 close below the H4 broken Quasimodo line at 1.0685 before considering selling this market. A retest of 1.0685, followed up by a reasonably sized H4 bear candle would be enough to justify a short entry (stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
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