Fibonacci is drawn from minor wave 5 to minute wave ((i))
On the 4 hour chart we have minor, minute and minuette waves with additional correctional waves.
Right now the price is moving in the minor correctional waves, after ending wave 5 at the last low at level 1.15193
Inside the correctional waves we have minute waves and minuette waves.
in the uptrend we have a diving board pattern with a flag formation, and further on we have a Pennant pattern.
After the price have been moving in the pennant pattern, we have tested the Resistance line in the flag formation, which is now serving as a strong support line.
A buy signal will occur when the pennant is broken and the price will continue its upward trend to test the resistance line in the trend channel while fibonacci is serving the level os 1.618 as the resistance in line with the third minuette wave ((iii)), the fifth wave for the minute (v) and the correctional wave A for the minor.
Correctional wave B serves as the correctional waves for minute.
If the trend channels support line is broken by the price which also means that the price will break the pennant to the down side, this analysis will be invalidated and a new will be uploaded.
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Is the fundamentals lining up with the technical?
There is a lot of important data coming Thursday specially.
Thursday, the ECB will decide the main refinancing rate which is expected to hold its level for the second year, at 0.00%
But what is important is the press conference, where Draghi will talk about when the bond buying program is ending and how to implement the quantitative easing. There is a chance that he will push this talks to the next rate meeting which could be devastating for the euro, but also good, as it can push the sales/exports that is made with Euros and will also make the price break the trend line and we could see a retest of the latest low maybe further..
At the same day the us is releasing important data for Retail sales and Core retails sales m/m where the forecast is higher than previously and also higher than last years numbers from the same month.
Overall the EUR/USD is actually very bearish on the fundamental levels, where the technical indicate a bullish short term trend.
Therefore a long position can be taken then the pennant is broken, where a short position is possible when the price breaks the trend channels support line.
If the Fundamentals line up with a bearish trend, than our bearish hidden divergence ( See RSI ) will be confirmed, and we will move lower.
Thank you for reading :)
On the 4 hour chart we have minor, minute and minuette waves with additional correctional waves.
Right now the price is moving in the minor correctional waves, after ending wave 5 at the last low at level 1.15193
Inside the correctional waves we have minute waves and minuette waves.
in the uptrend we have a diving board pattern with a flag formation, and further on we have a Pennant pattern.
After the price have been moving in the pennant pattern, we have tested the Resistance line in the flag formation, which is now serving as a strong support line.
A buy signal will occur when the pennant is broken and the price will continue its upward trend to test the resistance line in the trend channel while fibonacci is serving the level os 1.618 as the resistance in line with the third minuette wave ((iii)), the fifth wave for the minute (v) and the correctional wave A for the minor.
Correctional wave B serves as the correctional waves for minute.
If the trend channels support line is broken by the price which also means that the price will break the pennant to the down side, this analysis will be invalidated and a new will be uploaded.
________
Is the fundamentals lining up with the technical?
There is a lot of important data coming Thursday specially.
Thursday, the ECB will decide the main refinancing rate which is expected to hold its level for the second year, at 0.00%
But what is important is the press conference, where Draghi will talk about when the bond buying program is ending and how to implement the quantitative easing. There is a chance that he will push this talks to the next rate meeting which could be devastating for the euro, but also good, as it can push the sales/exports that is made with Euros and will also make the price break the trend line and we could see a retest of the latest low maybe further..
At the same day the us is releasing important data for Retail sales and Core retails sales m/m where the forecast is higher than previously and also higher than last years numbers from the same month.
Overall the EUR/USD is actually very bearish on the fundamental levels, where the technical indicate a bullish short term trend.
Therefore a long position can be taken then the pennant is broken, where a short position is possible when the price breaks the trend channels support line.
If the Fundamentals line up with a bearish trend, than our bearish hidden divergence ( See RSI ) will be confirmed, and we will move lower.
Thank you for reading :)
Komentar:
I wrote in my analysis that the fundamentals is pointing for a bearish run, while technical showed a bullish setup. This is a very god example of how fundamentals is playing out the technical analysis and therefore concluding that fundamentals is very important in a analysis.