Looking for shorts on the EUR...
Weekly gain/loss: + 49 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.0670
The EUR/USD market enjoyed another relatively successful week, increasing its value by a further 50pips into the closing bell. As you can see, the weekly support area at 1.0333-1.0502 and nearby 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515 has so far held firm. Assuming that the bulls remain in the driving seat here, the next pit stop can be seen around a weekly resistance level at 1.0819, followed closely by the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873.
The story on the daily chart, however, shows that price is currently seen trading within the walls of a daily supply zone coming in at 1.0714-1.0640. This area has already capped upside once back on the 16th Feb and again on the 6th Mar, so there’s a chance we may see history repeat itself here. In the event that this area is taken out, as the weekly timeframe suggests, traders’ crosshairs will likely be planted on the above noted weekly resistance level.
The after-effects of Friday’s US employment report saw the EUR advance against its US counterpart, and end the day tapping a high of 1.0699.The US economy created 235k jobs in Feb, coming in above estimates at 196k. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.7% and hourly earnings came in slightly lower than expected at 0.2%.
Our suggestions: Besides taking out the H4 trendline resistance etched from the high 1.0679, Friday’s advance also happened to form a D-leg to a H4 Harmonic AB=CD bearish formation (black arrows), with the 127.2% H4 Fib ext. pegged at 1.0678. On top of this, we also have the following structures in view: a nearby psychological level at 1.07, a H4 61.8% Fib retracement taken from the high 1.0828, a H4 bearish selling wick printed into the close and let’s not forget that all of this is positioned within the aforementioned daily supply zone! Based on this H4 and daily confluence, a selloff could very well be seen today. How much of a selloff, nonetheless, is difficult to judge as let’s be mindful to the fact that the weekly candles do show room to gravitate higher this week.
With everything taken into consideration, our desk has come to a general consensus that a sell trade on the break of the current H4 bearish (selling wick) candle is valid, targeting the nearby H4 trendline support taken from the high 1.0679 as an initial take-profit target. The safest position for stops, in our opinion, would be above the top edge of the daily supply zone coming in at 1.0714.
Data points to consider: ECB President Draghi speaks at 1.30pm GMT.
Weekly closing price: 1.0670
The EUR/USD market enjoyed another relatively successful week, increasing its value by a further 50pips into the closing bell. As you can see, the weekly support area at 1.0333-1.0502 and nearby 2017 yearly opening level at 1.0515 has so far held firm. Assuming that the bulls remain in the driving seat here, the next pit stop can be seen around a weekly resistance level at 1.0819, followed closely by the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873.
The story on the daily chart, however, shows that price is currently seen trading within the walls of a daily supply zone coming in at 1.0714-1.0640. This area has already capped upside once back on the 16th Feb and again on the 6th Mar, so there’s a chance we may see history repeat itself here. In the event that this area is taken out, as the weekly timeframe suggests, traders’ crosshairs will likely be planted on the above noted weekly resistance level.
The after-effects of Friday’s US employment report saw the EUR advance against its US counterpart, and end the day tapping a high of 1.0699.The US economy created 235k jobs in Feb, coming in above estimates at 196k. The unemployment rate came in as expected at 4.7% and hourly earnings came in slightly lower than expected at 0.2%.
Our suggestions: Besides taking out the H4 trendline resistance etched from the high 1.0679, Friday’s advance also happened to form a D-leg to a H4 Harmonic AB=CD bearish formation (black arrows), with the 127.2% H4 Fib ext. pegged at 1.0678. On top of this, we also have the following structures in view: a nearby psychological level at 1.07, a H4 61.8% Fib retracement taken from the high 1.0828, a H4 bearish selling wick printed into the close and let’s not forget that all of this is positioned within the aforementioned daily supply zone! Based on this H4 and daily confluence, a selloff could very well be seen today. How much of a selloff, nonetheless, is difficult to judge as let’s be mindful to the fact that the weekly candles do show room to gravitate higher this week.
With everything taken into consideration, our desk has come to a general consensus that a sell trade on the break of the current H4 bearish (selling wick) candle is valid, targeting the nearby H4 trendline support taken from the high 1.0679 as an initial take-profit target. The safest position for stops, in our opinion, would be above the top edge of the daily supply zone coming in at 1.0714.
Data points to consider: ECB President Draghi speaks at 1.30pm GMT.
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