EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?

12 Mei 2018

EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected.

The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1.

On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s.

Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway.

As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now.

In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.