EURUSD 25 Apr 2024 W17 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP / Jobless

25 Apr

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Apr 2024 W17 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

1. Market Sentiment
   
2. 4H Chart Analysis
   
3. 15m Chart Analysis
   

Market Sentiment

• Euro's recent strength: The Euro has gained some ground against the USD lately, fueled by weaker US data and supporting the Pullback Phase after the YTD lows.
  
• US data as a game changer: The upcoming US GDP and Jobless Claims reports are the main event. Strong numbers could significantly strengthen the USD, reversing the Euro's recent gains.
  
• Cautious market: Investors are holding back until the data is released, creating a wait-and-see sentiment that could limit the Euro's upside potential specially with US PCE Inflation Report tomorrow.
  

4H Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Itjo1AM7/

1.

• Swing Bearish
  
• Internal Bearish
  
• INT / Swing Pullback Phase
  

2.

• Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
  

3.

• After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
  
• With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.
  
• Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Swing Pullback.
  

4.

• As price reached the 4H Supply with Bullish OF, price showed a bearish reaction as expected to facilitate a Pullback to recent Demand.
  
• Price tapped into the 4H Demand and currently in the momentum to create a new high.
  
• As indicated previously, the Liquidity on the left above the 4H Supply and possibly the Swing EQ are the targets.
  

15m Chart Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cakcHT0x/

1.

• Swing Bullish
  
• Internal Bullish
  
• Long: Phase A
  
• Short: Phase C (Require Bearish iBOS)
  

2.

• Price mitigation to the 4H Demand.
  

3.

• Price turned bullish after mitigating the 4H Demand turning INT structure to Bullish.
  
• With INT structure is Bullish, expectations are set that we are going to target the Weak Swing High.
  
• But be mindful that we are still within the 4H Supply Zone that is partially mitigated yesterday so Phase A2 after the BOS will be tough. But Phase C will be applicable if we have a Bearish iBOS.