EUR/USD long: Thank you first buddy!

kemarin

Yup, the heading of this idea is very much tongue in cheek.
The Euro is fundamentally on the backfoot, especially after the confusing FOMC "we are slowing down while walking into this dark room" rate cut. WTH??? No need to cut because the Labor market is A OK, but we are cutting anyway because inflation may increase again. Call me dumb but I replayed that Press Conference over and over again.
My take away: The FOMC is very aware of the impact after January 20 2024. The former guy is back and this time around he is bringing his new best friend along for the ride. Well, we all know how these bromances work out in his world. They don't last but up until then, they are already starting to cause chaos as they go along.
Democrats and some Republicans have been raising the alarm about our democracy being under attack for some time now. There you have it. The second generation American and the Naturalized immigrant citizen are now running our beloved United States. The first mentioned not even in office yet and the other one not an elected official. But they bad mouth immigrants like these people are the spawn of the devil, conveniently forgetting their own roots. Between the two of them the have the money and social media resources to tank the current spending bill negotiations and they did so with glee.
I am certainly not anti immigration because immigrants are still the backbone of our economy. Why do you think is the Labor market so strong? Because a significant percentage of the reported 10 million plus recent immigrants are willing to work in slaughter houses, scrub floors, pick oranges for the Mar-A-Lago guests' freshly squeezed juice, clean Wall Street offices at 2 AM and so on.
I am also not anti cutting unnecessary Government spending but this is not Twitter. The individuals who will be affected won't be Musk and his numerous children or Trump living in luxury in Mar-A-Lago. It will be our Military Troops, the same people who defend us and sacrifice their lives for our country and quite frankly the International Order who will not have a pay check next week. And they do not plead bone spurs to avoid duty to their country...
Our TSA agents and air traffic controllers who will have to work with deferred pay to get us to our Holiday destinations to be with family.
In case, dear colleagues, you have not noticed: I AM FURIOUS at the current state of affairs and incomprehensible hypocrisy and blatant cronyism in this country. Musk stands to gain more than anyone else from this cozy relationship. Space X Federal contacts, removing self driving regulations, stopping numerous active investigations into his businesses, boosting his crypto investments etc. If you, dear reader, is a fan-boy/girl, have at it. I do not put my money in the hands or pockets of people like these two.
Technically, the chart should explain my reasoning. So far, the recent low has been respected. Some indicators are turning up. We also have USD PCE on tap tomorrow. And investors DO NOT like uncertainty like the potential Government shutdown by tomorrow night.
There is also a break down level that has to be revisited per the resistance zone on the chart. This is not a change in trend but merely a technical correction if it plays out.
BTW, I am also short AUD/JPY as a technical correction. My long EUR/USD from the lows and short from the 1.0420 level have played out profitably. And I am long EUR/USD again.

Finally, Happy Holidays and have a rocking 2025 trading around and through the guaranteed chaos.