EUR/USD Neutral to Short potential if it has a bump higher

13 Jun 2021

Main chart 4hr.

Layered time frame analysis using the 4hr, 1hr and 15m aligning Primary, Major, Minor trends.

Black and Red lines are the 10 and 20 EMAs of that chart time frame.

The Blue and Fuchsia lines are the 10 and 20 EMAs of the time frame higher with the 4hr plotting the daily counts including the 100 and 200 DEMAs.

The MACDs are a duplicate of those EMAs with the higher time frame histogram plotted.

An explanation of using the layered MACDs for pinpointing possible opportunities is in the available script under my profile.

On 28th May the EUR/USD popped out of it Regression Channel and then straight back ahead of the long weekend in the US and UK . . . a little bit of holiday positioning so fair enough. On 2nd June it had another attempt with a quick retest and subsequent fail to re-enter on the following day.

Price is now firmly out of the channels but it’s by no means a goner just yet. However, there are some very important levels to negotiate as Price is heading towards the confluence of the psychological 38% fib from the start of its move up and the 100 DEMA . If you look to the left, you’ll see a real battle ground at the 1.205 +/- level marked by the ellipses, so it would be prudent to expect another battle at those levels.

At the moment on the 60m and 15m, I can see a potential bounce higher indicated by my path arrow in black but these are for graphic purposes only so please don’t take them seriously for price or time levels. Price will however, often bump back to either of the 10 or 20 EMAs on its path collecting more Shorts before rolling over if the Sellers are to maintain control. This is precisely the move I'm expecting with the current information available but it's never a done deal until it happens. Hopefully I've correctly attached a snapshot of the 1hr and 15m charts in a follow up comment below to this post. The vertical line on the 15m chart which I use for entries is where the layered MACD methodology was put into good practice. Lots of other analysis goes into making these decisions, so please don’t think an aligned crossover is anything more than it is . . . it’s just a heads up.

Thomas Selby

13 Jun 2021

Catatan

17 Jun 2021

Catatan

Well my first target was well and truly sliced through . . . I think everyone was expecting a rather more benign FOMC statement but the dot plot had everyone running for the exit.

Straight down to next Support from the historical left, the 50% and the 200 DEMA. A regroup overnight at those levels and then the onslaught continued this morning. Price is now at the 62% and barring some pullbacks, buyers are catching falling knives based on the current information available.