EURUSD Analysis after the FED, BOE and BOJ!

23 Sep

The analysis of EUR/USD suggests a relatively strong position for the pair, currently stable around 1.1160, with a bullish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental factors.

Technical Factors:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart is near 70, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, suggesting that a technical pullback or correction could be imminent in the short term. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact for now.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Resistance: The first resistance level is at 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, which represents the July 18, 2023 high.
Support: The first support level is at 1.1135, followed by 1.1100.

Fundamental Factors:
US Dollar: The potential weakness of the US Dollar is a key factor. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2024 could contribute to a decline in the Dollar, increasing bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Although the data on initial jobless claims (219,000 vs. 231,000) temporarily supported the Dollar, the prevailing risk sentiment in the markets reintroduced bearish pressure on the Dollar later in the week.

European Central Bank (ECB): Comments from ECB members indicate that no significant monetary policy changes are expected until December. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech could have market impacts. If she opens the door to a rate cut as early as October, it could weaken the Euro. However, at this time, such a possibility seems unlikely.