EUR/USD Trading Analysis

Euro: Market Focus on Europe
The euro remains under pressure against the dollar as the announcement of steel tariffs over the weekend dealt an initial blow to the European Union. Europe is bracing for possible new tariffs on industries such as autos. As the EU's tariff levels are relatively low, the overall impact of "reciprocal" tariffs may be limited. But more worrying is that the U.S. Commerce Department plans to release a report on the causes of the U.S. trade deficit in April, which is expected to pave the way for broader tariff measures.
Regardless of today's tariff news, the current interest rate differential still supports EUR/USD hovering around 1.03, while weakening the momentum of a rebound. As discussed by our interest rate strategy team, the eurozone's interest rate differential with the United States is likely to remain high, if not widen, in the coming months. In addition, rising natural gas prices may also continue to put pressure on the euro. Before the new tariffs are introduced, the euro may fall further to the 1.0250-1.0260 range, or even lower.