EURUSD LONGTERM ANALYSIS

13 Mar 2015

The Euro has slid quite considerably over the past year after the implementation of QE the sell-off has gone into overdrive which is prevalent in extended 5th waves under the Elliott wave theory. The Eur/Usd has traced out a seemingly obvious 5 wave Elliott pattern with sub wave (5) within the larger degree wave 5 currently underway. All being said, Market sentiment and currency volatility are all at extreme measures which is a tell tale sign of an oversold market. Parity is possible yet it is not wise to be picking up the proverbial penny's off the train track when you can hear the train a coming. A strong dollar is continuing to weigh on corporate earnings and wage growth, Thus being the case the common market assumptions of policy divergence i.e Fed hiking rates .25% while the ECB and BOJ continue there easing efforts will soon become falsified. If the hiking cycle is pushed back and the considerable time frame rhetoric is reiterated once more at the upcoming FOMC meeting then there very well could be a major re balancing away from USD back into broader developed market exchange rates. All being said if you have held a short position in EUR/USD near the top or pre QE it would not be a unwise decision to begin to reduce your expose coming into the next FOMC meeting as it will be the most important and volatile one in quite some time.