EU downturn Scenario via EW and Fibs

10 Apr 2018

EUR/USD finished a well defined 12345 impulse.
Looks to be topping in Wyckoff Distribution style.
Should result in a markdown, perhaps to 1.18 by end of May

18 Apr 2018

Catatan

Some fine tuning of the EW and Fibs.
If correct, should resume downward trajectory very soon.
If not correct, may have to rethink a larger part of the structure.

23 Apr 2018

Catatan

EU proceeding per plan mostly.
Current price of 1.22 will offer some support, being a local double bottom.
If we can break below (perhaps late in week) then it opens up for continuation.

While pondering the fibs and EW waves, I found a good possibility for further drop.

27 Apr 2018

Catatan

Updated fibs and mid-term target.
Thanks to the ECB doves for giving my trade an extra push.
We might not even see the wave 4 bounce below, but if it happens, I might add more on the to retrace.

1 Mei 2018

Catatan

Still on track long term.
Looks close to a temporary bottom.
If 1.2000 does not spring price back up, then expect a little more of a dip then a relief bounce.

1 Mei 2018

Catatan

Forgot to add the Monthly S1 pivot also lurking at target.
I think it will have enough gravity to pull EU down that last little leg.

2 Mei 2018

Catatan

1.9500 still looks like a nice target, but surely will bounce a bit there?
Strong support likely (for now) from the Monthly S1 and Weekly S2 range)

7 Mei 2018

Catatan

Am in this short heavy.
Currently hoping for a bounce this week to short more!
I will watch 1.2000 but I think it will break it for a stop run, then down.
The zone I am watching:

9 Mei 2018

Catatan

.
Give the amount of gravity working on this chart, I am thinking 1.800 might be next possible support zone that might offer a little bounce

9 Mei 2018

Catatan

In the bigger picture, I have eliminated the ''less bearish'' count, leaving the one in dark red below, shooting for 1.120 - 1.125 range

13 Jun 2018

Catatan

For anyone still following this idea, please see my updated idea here: