The EURUSD "over-extended" August

I have said it several times I remain an EURUSD Bearish bias - long-term - due to the monetary policies divergence, on top of the fact that market unlikely have fully priced it in (hence there could be more move to the downside). To the shorter term however, I am pretty much Bullish bias because of the following :

1) EURUSD has had a strong sell-off in which it reached the average monthly range and exceeded it roughly by 50%. The market belief that I have (among others) is when a trading range for a particular timeframe has been exceeded, it has a high probability of the price to "take a break" (moving sideways without a definite trend in relation to the timeframe you are looking) before continuing it's trend or retraces/reverses.

2) In H4, my personal trend identifier have turned into bullish (not specified nor illustrated in the chart) and the weekly range High suits the minimum size that qualifies as a retracement leg

3) No risk event moves (economic data) that potentially could affect the Euros and Dollar today, so technical moves can be expected (i.e buying/selling at significant levels, profit taking, its Friday)

How will I determine my entry? : When any of these three levels (marked with a circle I have drawn) are tested and the reaction following to that are W patterns or Bullish Engulfing candle

target: Today's projected daily range High though I won't be surprised if the weekly range high could be reached today, but I won't hold my breath

Setups other than this (that is not even near to my setup), will be ignored.

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