Euro / Dollar ASPenjualan
Implied Volatility On Verge Of Breakout Favoring Lower EURUSD
Simple techs favor EURUSD momentum carrying the pair lower. EURUSD has fallen below the 200 hma, 10 & 21 dma as well as daily RSI remains bearish. Additionally, price has been sideways since March 13th after a one-way market went on hold.
Additionally, 3-month implied volatility on EURUSD looks like it could be breaking out higher. This is similar to a move seen in 2007-2008. The break higher aligned with EURUSD's fall from 1.6000 to the low 1.2000s. Taken together, Implied Volatility could be seen as a leading indicator of more aggressive moves to come while technical analysis favors trend continuation, which is EUR bearish & USD bullish.
ST invalidation could be seen at the 200-hma near 1.1130. A move to this level would mean a strong gap fill. The cleanest fundamental backing to this view is the push higher in Eurodollar futures, which seem to be pricing in no rate hike by the Fed this Fall. If Euro's struggles remain, the Fed no-hike could weigh heavier on USDJPY.
Additionally, 3-month implied volatility on EURUSD looks like it could be breaking out higher. This is similar to a move seen in 2007-2008. The break higher aligned with EURUSD's fall from 1.6000 to the low 1.2000s. Taken together, Implied Volatility could be seen as a leading indicator of more aggressive moves to come while technical analysis favors trend continuation, which is EUR bearish & USD bullish.
ST invalidation could be seen at the 200-hma near 1.1130. A move to this level would mean a strong gap fill. The cleanest fundamental backing to this view is the push higher in Eurodollar futures, which seem to be pricing in no rate hike by the Fed this Fall. If Euro's struggles remain, the Fed no-hike could weigh heavier on USDJPY.
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