EURUSD: Waiting the ECB for a new low of the year

21 Apr

EUR/USD has shown a significant upward trend, surpassing the key level of 1.0650. This upward movement was primarily driven by a shift in risk sentiment, with investors moving away from safe-haven assets, thereby weakening the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart indicated a recovery towards the 50 level, signaling a reduction in bearish momentum. Earlier, during Friday's Asian session, EUR/USD experienced a decline towards 1.0600, attributed to reports of Israeli missiles striking Iran. This triggered a flight to safety, benefiting the US Dollar and causing a temporary retreat in EUR/USD. However, official confirmation regarding Israeli retaliation against Iran was awaited, as Israel had not yet confirmed its involvement. Despite initial concerns, reports suggesting the end of direct attacks between Israel and Iran provided relief to the markets, leading to a reversal in risk sentiment. Consequently, S&P 500 futures retraced a significant portion of their previous losses, indicating an improvement in market mood. However, geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains a concern, potentially prompting investors to seek refuge before the weekend. Even in the absence of further escalation, investors may exercise caution, refraining from making risky bets amid persistent geopolitical tensions.