8.23 EURUSD Daily Review & Outlook
Monday 8.23, for the past 24 hours:
• EURUSD has risen 18 pips against the previous day close; hit target area set for Friday, but pull back from low.
• ↑ 41 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 51.7 pips of 22 day Average Range.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 6.1 -> 3.2 WEAK of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 5.0 -> 7.4 STRONG of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
These are my catch-up of news, some facts from the past week:
1. CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose back to 57.6K from 33.9K a week ago. Commodity currencies stall the fall. Gold consolidates bounce up after touch down $1664. Stock indices reverse well.
2. Fed's Kaplan's softens stance on taper, he represents the hawkish since US Dollars going rally in July and August. Which means, Powell has less pressure to keep dovish tone to USD in Jackson Hole symposium.
3. Market's concern on whether Delta variant will threat liquidation has begun to rise up, US Bond rates fall again proves the concerns, US10Y runs around 1.25% low.
A bit fundamental extra of EURUSD before Jackson Hole week:
a). As we know, Biden is seeking European support to counter China's rise, and ECB would like to keep Euro's rates steady to support their export. So, geopolitics factor won't support EURUSD goes too far. 1.15-1.20 would be a comfort zone to help Biden.
b). Some military analysts have concluded that U.S. fall is undeniable, plus their overloaded military operations, there's no hope to see real taper before they won the new cold war. Which means, all the rallies of USD would not last long, unless a real hot war events.
• Monday, LON 8-9am European Markit Services PMI, 3pm U.S. Existing Home Sales Change.
Next Step:
• I expect a test resistance 1.1725 and support 1.1685, close around 1.1730 ~ 1.1705 area.
• EURUSD has risen 18 pips against the previous day close; hit target area set for Friday, but pull back from low.
• ↑ 41 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 51.7 pips of 22 day Average Range.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 6.1 -> 3.2 WEAK of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 5.0 -> 7.4 STRONG of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
These are my catch-up of news, some facts from the past week:
1. CFTC EUR NC Net Positions rose back to 57.6K from 33.9K a week ago. Commodity currencies stall the fall. Gold consolidates bounce up after touch down $1664. Stock indices reverse well.
2. Fed's Kaplan's softens stance on taper, he represents the hawkish since US Dollars going rally in July and August. Which means, Powell has less pressure to keep dovish tone to USD in Jackson Hole symposium.
3. Market's concern on whether Delta variant will threat liquidation has begun to rise up, US Bond rates fall again proves the concerns, US10Y runs around 1.25% low.
A bit fundamental extra of EURUSD before Jackson Hole week:
a). As we know, Biden is seeking European support to counter China's rise, and ECB would like to keep Euro's rates steady to support their export. So, geopolitics factor won't support EURUSD goes too far. 1.15-1.20 would be a comfort zone to help Biden.
b). Some military analysts have concluded that U.S. fall is undeniable, plus their overloaded military operations, there's no hope to see real taper before they won the new cold war. Which means, all the rallies of USD would not last long, unless a real hot war events.
• Monday, LON 8-9am European Markit Services PMI, 3pm U.S. Existing Home Sales Change.
Next Step:
• I expect a test resistance 1.1725 and support 1.1685, close around 1.1730 ~ 1.1705 area.
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