EUR/USD daily overview

4 Jun 2018

The common European currency remained stable against the US Dollar for the third consecutive session on Friday, as the pair continued to fluctuate around the 55– and 200-hour SMAs. This has put the Euro in between the upper boundary of an eight-week channel and the weekly resistance/support level of 1.1647.

The pair trading near the upper channel line for two sessions suggests that it might be ready to break out to the upside. This bullish scenario is likewise strengthened by the fact that the rate surpassed the 55-period SMA (4h) early today.

The most probable upside target in this session is the weekly R1 and the monthly PP at 1.1750, while a fall should not exceed the 1.1630 area.

5 Jun 2018

Catatan

Upside risks prevailed during the first part of Monday with the Euro breaching the 55-hour SMA and an eight-week channel down. The pair subsequently edged higher but nevertheless fell short of the weekly R1 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1760.

The second part of the session was spent calmly, as the rate was trading in a narrow range between the aforementioned SMA and the 1.17 mark.

It is expected that the pair remains trading in the 1.1660/1.1760 range today. The southern barrier is set by the 55-period (4H) and the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, while the northern one—by the weekly R1 and the 100-period (4H) SMA.

It is likely that the 55-hour SMA guides the pair during the following hours prior to letting bears to lead the way later in the evening.

6 Jun 2018

Catatan

The common European currency was guided lower mid-Tuesday where it was stopped by the strong support of the 200-hour SMA and a junior channel circa 1.660.

A significant bullish boost to this currency was seemingly provided by the inaugural speech of the new Italian PM as a result of which the pair surged 62 pips within three hours. Its subsequent movement was sideways limited from above by the 100-period (4H) SMA at 1.172.

The rate still shows some potential up to the junior channel line, the monthly PP and the weekly R1 at 1.1760. Given that no significant data releases are scheduled, the Euro should maintain its current trading range in the junior pattern, with the upper boundary being the 1.1760 mark and the lower one—the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs circa 1.1665.

7 Jun 2018

Catatan

The Euro was boosted by fundamentals on Wednesday. It surged past the monthly PP, the weekly R1 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement following a comment by the ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet about inflation approaching the bank’s set target rate. As a result, EUR/USD was able to reach the psychological 1.18 mark by this morning.

Some upside potential is still apparent in the market. Two possible target points are the weekly R2 and the 200-period (4H) SMA at 1.1850 and 1.1900, respectively. A test of the latter would provide another confirmation of a short-term ascending channel.

On the other hand, the Euro might ease its upward pressure for a few hours. However, the 55– and 100-hour SMAs should provide support, thus preserving the general bullish tendency this week.