Possible intraday long opportunity in the offing
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains, consequently running into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]). As you can see, June is now on track to close by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern, considered a bearish signal according to Japanese candlestick analysis.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
EUR/USD recently addressed a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern, comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). According to the harmonic pattern’s overall structure, price is tipped for more underperformance this week.
It’s typical to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively. Note in between the said Fib studies traders must also contend with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1026.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory and has eyes on the 50.00 value.
H4 timeframe:
Four successive days of losses unearthed demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply) heading into the week’s close. Despite Friday’s attempt to recover, downside gained speed and settled deeper within the current demand’s range.
Another area likely monitored this week is fresh demand at 1.1115/1.1139, marrying up nicely with an ABCD bullish formation and trendline support (1.0774).
H1 timeframe:
Upside attempts through 1.1250, once again, proved unsustainable amid early US Friday, leading to a wave of selling that penetrated 1.12 and welcomed channel support (1.1207) into the fold.
1.12 was also retested as resistance, consequently increasing the probability of a 1.1150 test.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
The response out of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, along with price respecting the daily harmonic bearish bat pattern and suggesting we may be headed for the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106, promotes the idea of further selling on the bigger picture.
Short term:
H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158, although fed a mild recovery, is currently under pressure with some traders betting on a decline to H4 demand at 1.1115/1.1139 (along with H4 ABCD/trendline confluence). H1 has eyes on 1.1150 as support, following 1.12 holding as resistance.
Note 1.1150 is positioned just ahead of H4 demand at 1.1115/1.1139. Combined, this could fire up a short-term recovery this week. Ultimately, though, things are likely to eventually head for 1.11, based on the higher timeframes.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels and wrapped up a few pips shy of monthly highs out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains, consequently running into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]). As you can see, June is now on track to close by way of a shooting star candlestick pattern, considered a bearish signal according to Japanese candlestick analysis.
With reference to the primary trend, price has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
EUR/USD recently addressed a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern, comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval). According to the harmonic pattern’s overall structure, price is tipped for more underperformance this week.
It’s typical to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point, in this case at 1.1495. Common targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively. Note in between the said Fib studies traders must also contend with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1026.
In addition to the bearish configuration, the RSI indicator recently exited overbought territory and has eyes on the 50.00 value.
H4 timeframe:
Four successive days of losses unearthed demand at 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply) heading into the week’s close. Despite Friday’s attempt to recover, downside gained speed and settled deeper within the current demand’s range.
Another area likely monitored this week is fresh demand at 1.1115/1.1139, marrying up nicely with an ABCD bullish formation and trendline support (1.0774).
H1 timeframe:
Upside attempts through 1.1250, once again, proved unsustainable amid early US Friday, leading to a wave of selling that penetrated 1.12 and welcomed channel support (1.1207) into the fold.
1.12 was also retested as resistance, consequently increasing the probability of a 1.1150 test.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
The response out of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352, along with price respecting the daily harmonic bearish bat pattern and suggesting we may be headed for the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106, promotes the idea of further selling on the bigger picture.
Short term:
H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158, although fed a mild recovery, is currently under pressure with some traders betting on a decline to H4 demand at 1.1115/1.1139 (along with H4 ABCD/trendline confluence). H1 has eyes on 1.1150 as support, following 1.12 holding as resistance.
Note 1.1150 is positioned just ahead of H4 demand at 1.1115/1.1139. Combined, this could fire up a short-term recovery this week. Ultimately, though, things are likely to eventually head for 1.11, based on the higher timeframes.
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