EURUSD: Bearish Momentum Can Lead Price Back To 1.1760s Area.
EURUSD update: Price is attempting to stabilize at the 1.1933 level which is an old resistance / new support level while showing a bullish pin bar in the process. With momentum being decisively bearish, there is not enough structure at this level to justify any long swing trades.
When momentum is decisive in one direction, usually any attempt to stabilize turns out to be a trend continuation pattern. The narrow range that price is trying to carve out at the moment appears to be just that, the beginnings of a trend continuation formation. This is especially important to observe since the next significant support level is the 1.1764 reversal zone boundary which is 200 pips lower.
I would not look for longs here until price is much deeper into the reversal zone and is presenting a clear reversal structure which is it not doing at the moment. A pin bar is not a structure, it is just a single bar and not enough to justify taking any risk on the long side.
If price does happen to bounce, the 1.2100 level (.382 of current bearish swing) is where we would anticipate the next actionable resistance to be. Shorting on a break of the current continuation pattern is a consideration, but would be an aggressive choice since this market is not in any type of resistance zone.
As I always remind forex traders, these markets are heavily tied to the fundamental outlook of economic variables like interest rates. Any macro economic variable that has an effect on interest rates will sway the sentiment of major pairs like this one. It doesn't hurt to be aware of fundamental drivers that are putting pressure on a pair like this, but always look for the technical side to line up. If instead, the technical perspective is doing the complete opposite, which is not the case yet, then a fundamental shift may be in process that will show up on the charts before it does any where else. Do not discount the charts, because they often reflect fundamental changes before you hear about them anywhere else.
When momentum is decisive in one direction, usually any attempt to stabilize turns out to be a trend continuation pattern. The narrow range that price is trying to carve out at the moment appears to be just that, the beginnings of a trend continuation formation. This is especially important to observe since the next significant support level is the 1.1764 reversal zone boundary which is 200 pips lower.
I would not look for longs here until price is much deeper into the reversal zone and is presenting a clear reversal structure which is it not doing at the moment. A pin bar is not a structure, it is just a single bar and not enough to justify taking any risk on the long side.
If price does happen to bounce, the 1.2100 level (.382 of current bearish swing) is where we would anticipate the next actionable resistance to be. Shorting on a break of the current continuation pattern is a consideration, but would be an aggressive choice since this market is not in any type of resistance zone.
As I always remind forex traders, these markets are heavily tied to the fundamental outlook of economic variables like interest rates. Any macro economic variable that has an effect on interest rates will sway the sentiment of major pairs like this one. It doesn't hurt to be aware of fundamental drivers that are putting pressure on a pair like this, but always look for the technical side to line up. If instead, the technical perspective is doing the complete opposite, which is not the case yet, then a fundamental shift may be in process that will show up on the charts before it does any where else. Do not discount the charts, because they often reflect fundamental changes before you hear about them anywhere else.
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