InvestMate|EUR/JPY Attention declines!
Diupdate
đź’¶EUR/JPY Attention declines!
đź’¶Why I think dips are coming.
đź’¶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
đź’¶Compared to Japan where we are currently at levels of 1.6% this is also a fairly average result compared to past periods.
tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual
đź’¶ Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling the latest readings on 3 November showed us falling to levels of 6.6% compared to last year's reading of 6.7%.
đź’¶In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
đź’¶ Ahead of us next week, on 17 November to be exact, are the readings on inflation, which stood at 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on inflation slowing down. In the coming months.
đź’¶For Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained 3% growth the market is betting that we can break through this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2% during the next data which will take place on 17 November.
đź’¶ Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last counci meeting on 27 October to levels of 2%
đź’¶In Japan, of course, unchanged, the council kept rates unchanged at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, the next moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November
đź’¶With the fundamental environment now known, let's move to the chart.
đź’¶Looking at the chart from the peak to the current bottom we have already scored a fall of 3.51%.
The peak occurred just before the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan
đź’¶Thursday's declines were fuelled by inflation data from the United States showing that inflation is falling to 7.7%. My thoughts on falling inflation in the US were confirmed as I wrote in last week's post on the falling dollar:
đź’¶ Moving to the monthly chart, we can clearly see that we are at strong resistance lines set by the 2014 peak.
đź’¶The decline is also being driven by the distribution that has been going on for the last weeks.
đź’¶Looking at the fact that the decline came from the 0.618 levels of the downtrend wave after which we broke out new lows confirms my belief that we are officially in a downtrend.
đź’¶Actually we are at a key point which has been a strong line of defence and buying interest in recent weeks.
đź’¶There have been a lot of buyers at the new lows but with the following hours the interest to buy is subsiding.
đź’¶Looking at the economic situation and the willingness of the Japanese to strengthen their currency, I do not see attractive levels to buy EUR/JPY on the current places.
đź’¶Measuring where the declines may last I will apply 2 fibo measures. 1 from where the long term trend reverses to an uptrend and 2 from closer to the exit of the accumulation and the start of the uptrend impulse.
đź’¶Interesting to see a zone of 140 with 2 fibo levels from 2 measurements close together
đź’¶This is where I would be looking for some kind of reaction, but as far as I can see the road to this area stands open for now.
đź’¶Hope I've helped that my perspective has broadened your view of this pair.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
đź’¶Why I think dips are coming.
đź’¶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past.
đź’¶Compared to Japan where we are currently at levels of 1.6% this is also a fairly average result compared to past periods.
tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual
đź’¶ Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling the latest readings on 3 November showed us falling to levels of 6.6% compared to last year's reading of 6.7%.
đź’¶In Japan, on the other hand, unemployment rose from 2.5% to 2.6%.
đź’¶ Ahead of us next week, on 17 November to be exact, are the readings on inflation, which stood at 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on inflation slowing down. In the coming months.
đź’¶For Japan, inflation is gaining momentum even though we have maintained 3% growth the market is betting that we can break through this barrier and rise to levels of 3.2% during the next data which will take place on 17 November.
đź’¶ Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last counci meeting on 27 October to levels of 2%
đź’¶In Japan, of course, unchanged, the council kept rates unchanged at -0.1% at its last meeting, but with inflation gaining momentum, the next moves remain uncertain. For now, the market is pricing in an unchanged rate at the next decision on 22 November
đź’¶With the fundamental environment now known, let's move to the chart.
đź’¶Looking at the chart from the peak to the current bottom we have already scored a fall of 3.51%.
The peak occurred just before the intervention of the Central Bank of Japan
đź’¶Thursday's declines were fuelled by inflation data from the United States showing that inflation is falling to 7.7%. My thoughts on falling inflation in the US were confirmed as I wrote in last week's post on the falling dollar:
đź’¶ Moving to the monthly chart, we can clearly see that we are at strong resistance lines set by the 2014 peak.
đź’¶The decline is also being driven by the distribution that has been going on for the last weeks.
đź’¶Looking at the fact that the decline came from the 0.618 levels of the downtrend wave after which we broke out new lows confirms my belief that we are officially in a downtrend.
đź’¶Actually we are at a key point which has been a strong line of defence and buying interest in recent weeks.
đź’¶There have been a lot of buyers at the new lows but with the following hours the interest to buy is subsiding.
đź’¶Looking at the economic situation and the willingness of the Japanese to strengthen their currency, I do not see attractive levels to buy EUR/JPY on the current places.
đź’¶Measuring where the declines may last I will apply 2 fibo measures. 1 from where the long term trend reverses to an uptrend and 2 from closer to the exit of the accumulation and the start of the uptrend impulse.
đź’¶Interesting to see a zone of 140 with 2 fibo levels from 2 measurements close together
đź’¶This is where I would be looking for some kind of reaction, but as far as I can see the road to this area stands open for now.
đź’¶Hope I've helped that my perspective has broadened your view of this pair.
🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Catatan
It has gone beautifullyCatatan
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đź’˛ To keep up to date with all my activities I invite you to visit my Telegram đź’˛
đź’˛ t.me/Investmatez đź’˛
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