? Where do we go from here ?

23 Okt 2012

After finally breaking the last high from september it seems to me that the price has reached a point where it losses momenutm. It broke through resistance and went up to the 127.4% Fibo-Level just to encounter new resistance. Will we get a new trading range between 0.81134 and 0.81661 - a rather narrow range - or will we break through this levels with the next movement ? Well, basically this scenario calls for a OCO-order on either side of that range, were it not that the trendline is in the way for the short side at the moment. It is only reasonable to expect a 3rd touch of this line and to expect that it will hold on such an important level. What makes me a bit suspicous about this trend is that the price was not able to reach the 'dotted' upper channel line. This is usually a sign of weakness. Anyway, it is still too early to tell. The obvious trend formation could instead turn into this rising wedge - which if prices follow the wedge - might provide us with a good opportunity for a short position once the 161.8% Fibo-Level has been reached. I stay neutral until I see a sign for a direction as mentioned above. I am willing to go short if I see a trendline break on a daily close and I will have a buystop order just above the last high at 0.81661