Not out of the woods, yet

22 Jul 2021

so i see a lot of people have done a complete 180 in their attitude toward the market in the last 48 or so hours, since we've had this rapid and substantial upwards price action these last two days. while i am about as bullish as it gets when it comes to Ethereum and Bitcoin (and many altcoins), I think it is still very wise to approach the next few weeks with an extreme abundance of caution. Don't think for one second that the Musk/Wood/Dorsey meeting was not timed very thoughtfully. I personally don't think we are going to enter a PROLONGED bear market, but we HAVE to be open to the possibility that this thing could still see some very nasty drops before we get back on the inevitable track to new all time highs. The run the last two days has halted exactly at this fib level that i actually posted in an obscure idea about a week ago, stating that it is a very crucial level for ethereum (its actually titled "crucial level" lol) The charts are still very very clearly bearish at the current moment, and we didnt actually break any significant levels that should suggest a market reversal to the upside. In fact, we are still forming a textbook descending triangle after a massive drop of 50+%, and you can clearly see the significance of this blue fib circle level. Capturing support on this level is the first step on the road to ATH's, and then we still need to invalidate this descending triangle. I know btc broke down from its own descending triangle and managed to find its way back inside, and i know quite a lot of people are calling this pattern for ETH a falling wedge, but guys. This thing is textbook. Im not saying anyone should buy, or sell anything, just that we need to be very diligent here these next few weeks especially with trading. And be cognizant of the fact that we could very well see some very nasty numbers coming up here soon. Until we invalidate this triangle and break the previous high of 2400usd, we should all be very cautious when approaching the market. You can clearly see the daily RSI forming higher highs while the price action is forming lower lows creating a hidden bearish divergence. We should all remember what it is we are trading in this space: human emotion. The only thing that changes faster than the price of eth or btc IS human emotion, and we have seen just how much of an effect it can have on price action. Just as quickly, though, that emotion can swing the other way and it could get ugly. The charts, however, are completely objective and quantitative, and right now, they are still very bearish on all time frames, even the weekly now. We are forming a bullish pinbar in the current weekly candle, which can be a good sign, however, last weeks candle closed the lowest it has since March for Eth, and December for BTC. Not saying that we cant still go up from here, this is crypto. We should just all proceed with caution here as the best accumulation opportunities may still be ahead of us, and its best to have at least some dry powder ready to capitalize. I dont mean to sound overly bearish, we have just seen these exact types of times before and they have both not ended well, and they have gone against all TA and shot straight up as well. I just dont think its the time to go "all in", if you will. we should at least let this triangle manifest itself before going to any extremes. Im saying this because im seeing people all over the internet talking about things like selling their car, selling this selling that to go all in on crypto right now because of two days of rapid price increase. Especially with the Eth upgrades coming very very soon, we should expect to see at least some kind of rather large pull back before the hype run. Again, I dont mean to sound overly bearish, we all just should be a little careful as to not be caught off guard. Didnt mean to ramble this bad, wow lol. Thank you all for coming to my Ted Talk i guess :p

godspeed everyone

23 Jul 2021

Catatan

for anyone interested: these fib circles are measured from the high of january 2018 (market cycle top) to the high of february 2021. you can connect several different points of market cycles tops and bottoms to come up with several obscure, yet very respected in the macro charts, level of support and resistance that you wouldnt normally have on your radar