Ethereum - The Hard Reality
Diupdate
Under normal circumstances, with the Ethereum Proof of Work merge being less than three weeks away, you could regard a swing like $2,000 --> $1,500 as a buying opportunity.
However, you should always remember that today, crypto, especially both Ethereum and Bitcoin, have futures contracts and ETFs (The TSX has an Ethereum ETF) being traded by major Wall Street players.
Because the overall markets are in stage one of deflating a major 20%+ bear rally, and everything is currently set up to begin a descent to retest the COVID-era lows, your digital currencies that you hold in such prized regard will be follow the tides, as will all commodities, such as silver, natural gas, oil, etc.
In my opinion, BTC actually ate a Bump and Run Reversal on its second trip to 60k, which coincided with some major US Bitcoin ETFs launching.
The land that lies ahead for BTC is a trip to $15,000 and $12,000, and it will never be particularly bullish again. It will always be a laggard in the market from here on out.
BTC will kind of become Ethereum's Bitcoin Cash, even though it will be worth more per coin, it will trade in this clumsy and heavy and slow pattern that isn't very useful to anyone, a lot like trading gold futures, except worse.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/Cozj2ZoC-Bitcoin-An-Unimpressive-Climax/
Instead, I called in July that Ethereum will actually undergo a proper "Flippening," the kind of which ETH bulls have been waiting for, to occur as the rest of the market dies. You still won't see 1 ETH > 1 BTC, because there's 8x as many ETH as there are BTC, and all of this is still a simple function of market capitalization.
This is the purpose of the PoW Merge: to lay groundwork in conditioning public acceptance, especially among young people, of the coming smart-contract enabled, censorship-equipped Central Bank Digital Currencies.
The results of which will mean your "money" is censored by the state as has been done under the Chinese Communist Party for more than a decade. A reality of CBDC smart contracts is that disbursed "money" works more like coupons or food stamps.
For example, in Ukraine, their Diia CBDC app handed out digital currency in exchange for complying with edicts like Coronavirus Disease 2019 vaccine acceptance. But the "money" couldn't be spent on whatever you wanted.
Instead, it is communist command economy stuff, such as only being able to purchase books printed by state-approved printing houses.
CBDCs are not something to look forward to, just like communism will ruin your soul's futures and isn't going to save you. But a lot of you will think all of this is "progress," until the reality of living under the evil Party is demonstrated through its jackboots on the back of your head while you're face down in blood covered snow one cold and dark winter day.
But the reality of ETH going to $4,200 for a "Flippening" while the rest of the market corrects is that first you get a major shakeout. It's like dancing. To go forward, first, you go backwards.
And the reality is, Ethereum is no longer in a bullish market phase.
There's a lot of unfinished business Ethereum has in the three digit range, and it's a range that a lot of people will panic sell in or sell because the rest of the markets are going down and they need to cover margin, which is calling.
For the patient, it gives you quite a buying opportunity. But if you're using leverage, you really have to be extremely careful under the $880 lows. The MMs will break your neck, and it will happen very suddenly.
But whoever gets long, you should know that when Ethereum prints $4,000-$5,000 again, it's not going to last and the Party is quickly going to come to an end, because central banks are never going to allow a pseudo-decentralized anything to operate in their space as anything more than a heavy second fiddle.
You shouldn't have faith in digital currencies. You should have faith in mankind's traditions and our traditional money systems. Buy metals, but don't put all your fiat into them, and hold for the long term, because mankind will return to its traditional and Divinely-given way of life.
One day that isn't very far away, computers will be depreciated and you'll need real goods and services to trade for real goods and services again.
And then, everyone will actually be happy.
It will happen in this lifetime. It will happen very, very soon.
However, you should always remember that today, crypto, especially both Ethereum and Bitcoin, have futures contracts and ETFs (The TSX has an Ethereum ETF) being traded by major Wall Street players.
Because the overall markets are in stage one of deflating a major 20%+ bear rally, and everything is currently set up to begin a descent to retest the COVID-era lows, your digital currencies that you hold in such prized regard will be follow the tides, as will all commodities, such as silver, natural gas, oil, etc.
In my opinion, BTC actually ate a Bump and Run Reversal on its second trip to 60k, which coincided with some major US Bitcoin ETFs launching.
The land that lies ahead for BTC is a trip to $15,000 and $12,000, and it will never be particularly bullish again. It will always be a laggard in the market from here on out.
BTC will kind of become Ethereum's Bitcoin Cash, even though it will be worth more per coin, it will trade in this clumsy and heavy and slow pattern that isn't very useful to anyone, a lot like trading gold futures, except worse.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/Cozj2ZoC-Bitcoin-An-Unimpressive-Climax/
Instead, I called in July that Ethereum will actually undergo a proper "Flippening," the kind of which ETH bulls have been waiting for, to occur as the rest of the market dies. You still won't see 1 ETH > 1 BTC, because there's 8x as many ETH as there are BTC, and all of this is still a simple function of market capitalization.
This is the purpose of the PoW Merge: to lay groundwork in conditioning public acceptance, especially among young people, of the coming smart-contract enabled, censorship-equipped Central Bank Digital Currencies.
The results of which will mean your "money" is censored by the state as has been done under the Chinese Communist Party for more than a decade. A reality of CBDC smart contracts is that disbursed "money" works more like coupons or food stamps.
For example, in Ukraine, their Diia CBDC app handed out digital currency in exchange for complying with edicts like Coronavirus Disease 2019 vaccine acceptance. But the "money" couldn't be spent on whatever you wanted.
Instead, it is communist command economy stuff, such as only being able to purchase books printed by state-approved printing houses.
CBDCs are not something to look forward to, just like communism will ruin your soul's futures and isn't going to save you. But a lot of you will think all of this is "progress," until the reality of living under the evil Party is demonstrated through its jackboots on the back of your head while you're face down in blood covered snow one cold and dark winter day.
But the reality of ETH going to $4,200 for a "Flippening" while the rest of the market corrects is that first you get a major shakeout. It's like dancing. To go forward, first, you go backwards.
And the reality is, Ethereum is no longer in a bullish market phase.
There's a lot of unfinished business Ethereum has in the three digit range, and it's a range that a lot of people will panic sell in or sell because the rest of the markets are going down and they need to cover margin, which is calling.
For the patient, it gives you quite a buying opportunity. But if you're using leverage, you really have to be extremely careful under the $880 lows. The MMs will break your neck, and it will happen very suddenly.
But whoever gets long, you should know that when Ethereum prints $4,000-$5,000 again, it's not going to last and the Party is quickly going to come to an end, because central banks are never going to allow a pseudo-decentralized anything to operate in their space as anything more than a heavy second fiddle.
You shouldn't have faith in digital currencies. You should have faith in mankind's traditions and our traditional money systems. Buy metals, but don't put all your fiat into them, and hold for the long term, because mankind will return to its traditional and Divinely-given way of life.
One day that isn't very far away, computers will be depreciated and you'll need real goods and services to trade for real goods and services again.
And then, everyone will actually be happy.
It will happen in this lifetime. It will happen very, very soon.
Catatan
Careful, bears.I expect you'll probably see prices like $1,540 or even $1,610 around London/New York open before we take a real trip to the trendline.
Catatan
$1,540 achieved as stock market ETF gaps fill.Worth noting that CME ETH futures is now trading in backwardation.
Catatan
Looks to me like $1,540 was probably the top and $1,600 is too much of a bull fantasy.Catatan
This price action is pretty convincing, but one thing I find concerning is printed on the BTC chart:This 4H double top from last week as price action is about to sweep lows that are also under the 2019 ATH makes me think you could see an impressive 10% pump.
Tomorrow is month end AND US Non-farm Payroll, a notoriously volatile time.
ETH would probably print ~$1,650 before nuclear doom if that is the case.
Catatan
A key aspect of this last ~40 days of price action was formed when Ethereum made a horizontal channel in early August.First it dumped under it, collected, longs, ripped over it, ran through it, ran back under it, and has been impotent underneath.
A notable characteristic of this last week's of volatility we've had is that $1,600 has become a heavy number. A lot hinges on whether or not Ethereum can retake this channel at $1,650.
I suspect this test is conducted during NYSE open tomorrow.
If it can't, watch out below.
Catatan
This is trading like we have no interest in even attempting $1,650. The next several hours could be rather bloody.
Catatan
Ethereum finally traded back into the bottom of the channel, albeit at a curious time. I really wonder this price action would unfold on Labor Day, 12 hours before New York markets re-open.One answer may very well be that we see Ethereum retrace and be laggard and weak tomorrow while Bitcoin moons 10%.
Another is that we may see $1,750 Ethereum.
But be careful bulls, those days of dumps to $1440... there's a big gap on futures no more than $60 down from where it stopped...
Catatan
First big rejection of the bottom channel recoveryHard to buy the dip, hard to short now.
Catatan
I'm quite confident that this $700 range lies ahead for Ethereum, not just the $1,110 gap fill. Just be careful, bears. There's still two weeks left in the month.CME Futures finally touched that gap from July, and on a Sunday morning gap down.
You could see huge face ripping bounces during New York tomorrow. It's not that things will have turned bullish, it's that early bears, late bears, and greedy bears will not be allowed to participate in the real move.
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.