Ethereum ETHUSD - Welcome to Bear Markets. $2,800 Lies Ahead
Diupdate
Bear markets provide exceptionally nice volatility and are a really great opportunity to trade. But because they trade big ranges and go after both highs and lows, humans don't like them. Why?
Because people want to push buy on something and have it go up in a straight line with little or no pullback.
If that's what you want, go loan someone with good credit some money at 5% interest and stop trading.
Ordinary humans don't want to have to think about risk and reward and they don't want to have to take profit. They want to smush buy and get a 10 or a 20 bagger and go to the strippers.
And yet in the last stock market bull run, the greatest in history, retail traders lost $5 billion in the options market. Go figure.
The reason bear markets have such huge rallies is because bear markets are about selling. If you understand what selling is about, you'll understand that institutions and funds don't sell the bottom like you do. Neither do they buy high like you do.
Instead they buy at low prices from you while you're afraid and sell to you at high prices while you're greedy.
The best part of a bear market rally for them is that it Pavlov's Dogs you to buy the dip, so that when the pump is over you'll be on the wrong side of the trade, buying and buying "at a discount" while it slides downwards like an avalanche with only impotent wicks that don't last along the way.
Now, I'm not bullish on crypto. I think digital currencies, without exception, are scam coins with literally no value. The most fundamental reason for my opinion is that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of Treasury intends to crack down on crypto in the very short term future for the purposes of replacing these so-called "decentralized" systems, which are heavily centralized in Chinese Communist Party-linked interests in the first place, with Central Bank Digital Currencies.
You should know a global digital dollar is never going to run on Ethereum or BTC. Don't be foolish. Nobody is going to give you power like that. It's a small club, and you aren't a part of it.
If you don't believe it then read the Fed's FOMC minutes. Stable coins are targeted in each and every one. The Democrats, which so many of you somehow still vote for, have crackdown legislation targeting crypto making its way through the House. Look at things from the International Bank of Settlements and look at comments given by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada on the topic of Smart Contracts.
CBDCs and global social credit are coming. The globalists want to emulate the Chinese Communist Party. Technocratic communism won't be built on Ethereum.
Ethereum is just here to groom you to accept real technocratic communism. When they're done using it, this will get knocked down to $50, and then $20, and then $5.
Ethereum has already degenerated into a censorship regime as well. There's nothing AnCap about this junk, except that it goes uppy and you want to get rich, and quick.
In terms of long time frames, because Ethereum rallied so huge and so fast, from $300~ to $4,500 in only seven months, big moves like $1,100 to $1,650 only amount to marginal variance inside what can be considered a demand zone.
The truth is, though, that once Ethereum broke $1,700 during the June dump, this market is no longer a bull market. The makers are accumulating positions at a relative discount, still, and that type of demand zone, because the range is so huge, goes all the way up to $2,600.
There are two important considerations with this trade, considering ETH:
1. Ran the bottom of the $1,300 consolidation range and immediately recovered
2. Broke out, hard
3. Has not retraced in 2 weeks
These factors combined mean that the MMs are still heavy on the sell, and if ETH is to stop making upwards progress and actually trade under $1,480 again, it will not be for the sake of a rebalance for further upward movement, but because we are going under $1,110.
In short, that price range is "poison" and will only manifest when the markets at large are in trouble.
So if you're underwater short, I hope you cut your losses while you have a chance.
Because the MMs are heavy on the sell, you can expect previous highs to be eliminated.
Those most significantly stand at $1,800 and $2,050, two key psychological levels that will bring in a lot of FOMO. Because they will bring in FOMO and people who have been standing on the sideline scared, the market isn't likely to turtle soup either of these levels.
Instead, I expect the real intention of the MMs is to take the longs they accumulated in the $1,100 - $1,200 range over the course of several weeks back towards and above range equilibrium of $2,600 and begin distribution.
Once distribution is finished, the drop will be tremendous in terms of both speed and magnitude. What's aimed for will be three digits, and at that point, what we are being being set up for is probably a new high over $5,000.
But it will be very hard for you to survive long enough to see numbers like $5,000, especially if you want to HODL, especially if you get greedy, especially if you get scared.
Because people want to push buy on something and have it go up in a straight line with little or no pullback.
If that's what you want, go loan someone with good credit some money at 5% interest and stop trading.
Ordinary humans don't want to have to think about risk and reward and they don't want to have to take profit. They want to smush buy and get a 10 or a 20 bagger and go to the strippers.
And yet in the last stock market bull run, the greatest in history, retail traders lost $5 billion in the options market. Go figure.
The reason bear markets have such huge rallies is because bear markets are about selling. If you understand what selling is about, you'll understand that institutions and funds don't sell the bottom like you do. Neither do they buy high like you do.
Instead they buy at low prices from you while you're afraid and sell to you at high prices while you're greedy.
The best part of a bear market rally for them is that it Pavlov's Dogs you to buy the dip, so that when the pump is over you'll be on the wrong side of the trade, buying and buying "at a discount" while it slides downwards like an avalanche with only impotent wicks that don't last along the way.
Now, I'm not bullish on crypto. I think digital currencies, without exception, are scam coins with literally no value. The most fundamental reason for my opinion is that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Department of Treasury intends to crack down on crypto in the very short term future for the purposes of replacing these so-called "decentralized" systems, which are heavily centralized in Chinese Communist Party-linked interests in the first place, with Central Bank Digital Currencies.
You should know a global digital dollar is never going to run on Ethereum or BTC. Don't be foolish. Nobody is going to give you power like that. It's a small club, and you aren't a part of it.
If you don't believe it then read the Fed's FOMC minutes. Stable coins are targeted in each and every one. The Democrats, which so many of you somehow still vote for, have crackdown legislation targeting crypto making its way through the House. Look at things from the International Bank of Settlements and look at comments given by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada on the topic of Smart Contracts.
CBDCs and global social credit are coming. The globalists want to emulate the Chinese Communist Party. Technocratic communism won't be built on Ethereum.
Ethereum is just here to groom you to accept real technocratic communism. When they're done using it, this will get knocked down to $50, and then $20, and then $5.
Ethereum has already degenerated into a censorship regime as well. There's nothing AnCap about this junk, except that it goes uppy and you want to get rich, and quick.
In terms of long time frames, because Ethereum rallied so huge and so fast, from $300~ to $4,500 in only seven months, big moves like $1,100 to $1,650 only amount to marginal variance inside what can be considered a demand zone.
The truth is, though, that once Ethereum broke $1,700 during the June dump, this market is no longer a bull market. The makers are accumulating positions at a relative discount, still, and that type of demand zone, because the range is so huge, goes all the way up to $2,600.
There are two important considerations with this trade, considering ETH:
1. Ran the bottom of the $1,300 consolidation range and immediately recovered
2. Broke out, hard
3. Has not retraced in 2 weeks
These factors combined mean that the MMs are still heavy on the sell, and if ETH is to stop making upwards progress and actually trade under $1,480 again, it will not be for the sake of a rebalance for further upward movement, but because we are going under $1,110.
In short, that price range is "poison" and will only manifest when the markets at large are in trouble.
So if you're underwater short, I hope you cut your losses while you have a chance.
Because the MMs are heavy on the sell, you can expect previous highs to be eliminated.
Those most significantly stand at $1,800 and $2,050, two key psychological levels that will bring in a lot of FOMO. Because they will bring in FOMO and people who have been standing on the sideline scared, the market isn't likely to turtle soup either of these levels.
Instead, I expect the real intention of the MMs is to take the longs they accumulated in the $1,100 - $1,200 range over the course of several weeks back towards and above range equilibrium of $2,600 and begin distribution.
Once distribution is finished, the drop will be tremendous in terms of both speed and magnitude. What's aimed for will be three digits, and at that point, what we are being being set up for is probably a new high over $5,000.
But it will be very hard for you to survive long enough to see numbers like $5,000, especially if you want to HODL, especially if you get greedy, especially if you get scared.
Catatan
Thanks to the CZ vs Sam Bankman Fried news, we have a situation where in if this $1,470 area isn't the bottom, it's hard to believe we're not making new lows instead.Notable is that while Ethereum still has some range to go before it gets back to that month-long consolidation range in the 1200-1300s, Bitcoin is already at its equivalent place.
Any lower and Bitcoin appears to be primed to bust $17,000.
Catatan
Option #2 for longer-term bullish continuations is that Bitcoin runs $17,500 as a raid while Ethereum runs 3 digits as a raid.Pick your poison.
Catatan
More or less, if ETH bounces at $1,450 and BTC bounces at $19,500, the bull thesis is still in play, and strongly so.Catatan
Just going to leave this right here.Catatan
Well, all I can say is:Shorts are probably only scalps for now.
Catatan
The MMs are making this tough, and it may just mean doom lol.Last time price action resembled a rounding into reversal pump like that was Aug. 29
But it didn't turn around and die.
Catatan
The bull thesis is not necessarily off the table. Some time ago, I had drawn this box on my chart representing a gap found on the CME Ethereum Futures:As you'll note, exactly where we traded back to was exactly this box, which is extremely consistent with a breakout-retrace from consolidation pattern that usually indicates higher prices are in store.
Be more scared of shorting than longing, but keep your risk in check, is the way to handle it, imo.
Catatan
Turns out this call I made on Ethereum back in August was actually right.
The amount of time things take to unfold really throws me off, to be honest.
Catatan
What are the bears and the haters going to do if yesterday's quiet dump to $1,085~ was actually the bottom?Sure, this pump comes in response to the CPI "news," but what to do if it's coupled with news FTX struck a deal to survive around 10:30 am EST?
This is how markets really operate. News is known ahead of time and price action is arranged accordingly.
Catatan
Something to be careful of with Ethereum is that I recall the MMs have this habit of big pumps followed by dumps that take it all away, and more.Before it finally continues upwards.
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