ETH Downturn almost over prepare for *potential* upward whiplash

30 Apr 2022

ETHUSDAs we can see currently as an intra-week trend we are headed downwards after the break from the megaphone downwards.
Why will it go up?

First, let's start with the technical analysis. We have been sitting in the 2/1 gan fan for some time now meaning that the bear momentum is dying. we may go down some more but it is mostly moving sideways. Upon moving into the 3/1 area, the bulls will begin to take control. The RSI is almost oversold on the daily and 4 hours and is also constantly showing a bullish divergence.

overall for the next few months, I am bullish as you can see we are in a falling wedge on the weekly. If we hit the triple bottom we may break the falling wedge and head to the top of it. where will bounce back down test a newly flipped support around, and continue upwards to a new high and possibly beyond, but finding the top will require more data closer to that time period.

Fundamentals.
ETH is changing from proof of work to proof of stake this summer in the second quarter, quite possibly the third quarter, expect turbulence if the latter is true as the market will throw a tantrum if the latter is true. Inflation is up tremendously and is expected to continue rising, even as the Fed increases rates. The overall market is in decline, and the average recession goes from about 6 months to a maximum of 18 months historically. that being said, alternative assets usually do well in these conditions. so the outlook for crypto could be positive.

Trading plan
As of right now, my buying plan is this for the coming months
2660 +- 40 -----> 5000 +- 200 = around 2500 profit p/eth
4000 +- 300 --------> 6400 OBO = around 2400 profit p/eth
and if market conditions exist for analysts' 10k prediction to come true pending more data
5400 +- 300 ------> 9700 +- 300 = around 4300 profit per eth
expected profit 6-month time frame = 4900 profit per eth
possible 9-month profit pending positive market conditions and volume = 9200 per eth

take scenario of having one eth
2600 = 1
sell @ $5000
buy @ 4000 = 1.25 eth
sell @ 6400 = $8000
buy @ 5400 = 1.48 eth
sell @ 9700 = $14370
2660 -----> 14370 = profit of $11710 per Eth
Then buy again after the price breakdown. These numbers are not set in stone nor is this financial advice, just merely speculation and follow my general annual trading plans for crypto assets. it does show however that one can stretch a small investment into larger gains. Trade safe and trade on longer periods of time. will update regularly with adjusted price targets and when I enter and exit markets. this post is mostly going to be a journal entry for my own record keeping.

-The manager at the soup kitchen

4 Mei 2022

Catatan

The time is almost here to buy. Should be one minor dip tonight or

Macro view: We are in a falling wedge within a larger falling wedge. What does that mean one might say? It's a classic sign of asset price consolidation, a typically reliable indicator of a trend continuation, which is supported by a decreasing value as the market becomes unsure of the direction.


First If the trend line for the ascending channel holds in the mid-2600s. If it holds the price will rocket to the first resistance @ 3k, this will be due to it being a psychological barrier, as well as many small investors are quite literally "out of money" and the investors who bought at 3k will try to sell off to break even. This junction is the most dangerous for a bullish thesis as it could indicate a fakeout to the downside at 2400 and in a worst-case scenario 1800.
The price at 3k will move sideways for a day or two in order to consolidate, and transform into a strong, sustainable upward movement, and would be confirmed by a bounce off of the 1/1 GAN.
The next sets of resistance are at 3150, 3300, and 3500. with each gain, the bullish thesis for the retest of 4800 becomes more probable. The move after requires more data for closer precision per the law of small numbers.

Let's talk fundamentals:
"Smart money" meaning historically profitable wallets have been increasing their staking in the ETH network. Up 1.3 million in the last 24 hours. One of the next biggest indicators for an upward slingshot motion is the lack of liquid ETH available in the exchanges, at very low levels, which indicates people who hold ETH are planning on holding medium to long term, by placing assets into Defi networks, most likely staking on the upcoming proof of stake model.

TL: DR
Technicals are bullish, money is coming in, and supply is running out. We have not seen the pre-upgrade pump yet, therefore it is probable buying at this level will earn you a profit.

Again anything can happen, just watch for the numbers I listed. Not financial advice, trade safe.
-Manager at the soup kitchen

4 Mei 2022

Catatan

4 Mei 2022

Catatan

4 Mei 2022

Catatan

price at 2939 currently, hold for retest of support then buy

5 Mei 2022

Trade aktif

The market entered within an acceptable range with partial capital. full buy-in at confirmation. place holder buy in place @ 2715

6 Mei 2022

Catatan

Alright, im about to add more to my position, however waiting for a few more cross-checks on different indicators. As we can clearly see the bears are losing momentum and volume, as I've been saying for a week. The mood seems to be despair in the community, and almost all indicators are pointing towards oversold. possibly a reversal point for the last 6 weeks of bearish movement. expect a retest of 2900 *at least*.

8 Mei 2022

Trade aktif

bought more ETH 2580, AVG down to 2648. right on target. more capital in reserve to buy if the price continues to drop. We will continue to walk the price down to daily oversold

9 Mei 2022

Trade aktif

bought more in at 2500 this morning, AVG down to 2598.

11 Mei 2022

Trade aktif

rising volume last capital in at 2325 today. average down to 2542.2. Time to wait for the 3rd quarter. will monitor the situation, however, situations dictate moving attention over to the stock market for intra-week swing trading on blue chips.