ETH is the Most Bullish High Market Cap Coin

29 Mei 2018

(I'd say up front that "high market cap" is subjective, that obviously some other top coins have a lot more running room and some of them will. The title is more about how straightforwardly bullish I think the chart is than it is a claim about nominal returns - I'm saying that the R:R looks unusually good from the risk side because the bet looks to me to be much more likely to pay out than other large coins.)

ETH's chart is a straight line up on Accumulation/Distribution since April. Big money clearly thinks this is going higher to the point that once it found a bottom in April they were prepared to start buying again on the way up and they kept buying more all the way back down. This has in turn created a pretty silly amount of bullish divergence. No other high market cap coin can claim straight line Accum/Dist since the April low - not even EOS. It may or may not actually pull the highest percentage returns since it's a bigger coin that's starting from a higher low rather than rock bottom, but with wider availability of leveraged trading for ETH, this is potentially irrelevant depending on strategy.

For reasons that I can't quite wrap my head around, people have nonetheless shorted this all the way to ~0.92 ETHUSDLONGS/ETHUSDSHORTS at the time of this writing. Perhaps if the argument is that all of crypto is going to collapse that makes sense, but there's pretty wide sentiment that BTC had very strong support at the 6900 trendline and we were likely to see at least a modest bounce very soon - which it looks like we got this morning. Surely though, there's another coin people could be shorting this heavily that isn't being continuously accumulated through the ups and downs. Either we take another stab down to test that BTC trendline or we're going to see these shorts get squeezed very soon. Regardless, the preexisting heavy short bias is an anchor bears have to drag as they try to push any lower, which makes ETH that much more bullish.

ETH has intrinsic value from utility on its own network, the lion's share of ICOs continue to launch on it and it will maintain an incumbency advantage for a while longer, it's gotten bullish adoption news with respect to AWS integration tools, it's established to a degree that's nearly at parity with BTC. We're going to be talking about the flippening again sometime in the next half of the year.

I'm an amateur and you definitely shouldn't take this as financial advice. I'd be interested in any feedback.