ETH - D1 Scenario

28 Okt 2018

Hello guys, so here's what I'm seeing for ETHUSD.

There's 2 possible outcome, either we go up or we go down ! (no shit Sherlock lol)

I can't decide between a continuous bearish pennant like earlier in August or a symmetrical triangle which can mark an important trend reversal, which is the moment EVERYONE is waiting for. Volume is decreasing, this is a confirmation for both pattern, so right now I'm undecided. There going to be a huge spike in volume soon bringing market either up or down.

Here's where I see the market go if it goes either way :

• I calculated the highest point of the symmetrical triangle/bearish pennant to the lower trend which gave me an 81$~ price range. Which would be the range of the move (up or down).
  
  
• Usually with a symmetrical triangle you can safely draw a parrallel channel with the 2 lows and the single high which exactly confirms the next higher high at 291$ ~ and will close above that monthly level from 2017.
  
  
• If this is a bearish pennant and the continuation to the ''yearly low'' I expect us to dump to 123$ ~ and make that yearly low with a lot of blood in the streets.
  
  
• What intrigue me the most right now is that the trading range contracted so much in the last week and a half ~. Contracted even more then last pennant, making me consider about the calm before the storm (consolidation zone).
  
  
• Another thing that I'm wondering is, will we get a last shake out before the move up. Lately everytime I called a symmetrical triangle pattern there's been a fake breakout to the bottom to shake people out then the move up happenned. Let's see if it happen on higher time frame chart.
  

29 Okt 2018

Catatan

Hello guys short update, we did break down of the symmetrical triangle or bearish pennant. What I'm currently looking at is this going to be a fake breakout to get some liquidity/SL Hunt before a push up.

Why am I focusing on the fake breakout part is because I missed a couple opportunities where I had the right TA but the fake break down/SL Hunt before the rally screwed my thinking. Gotta keep learning they say.



Right now on the H4 chart, I'm looking at 191.90 and 184.50 as the 2 pivots points. We did get a massive bounce at 192 but I still think we are missing confirmation of a reversal point here.



As for the H1 chart, it looks to me we are going to revisit that 192 zone, let's hope it holds.

So le'ts wait for the market to stabilize a bit and then see where we are going.