ETH nearing capitulation

30 Jan 2019

History shows that BTC has a cycle of roughly 55-60 days from low to low. The last bear market completed 7 cycles before capitulation and BTC is currently nearing the end of the 7th bear market cycle now. I'm expecting that in the next month BTC capitulates in a similar manner to the end of the last bear market in 2015.

ETH however has a longer cycle of roughly 70 days and is nearing the end of its 5th cycle in this bear market. I'm expecting that this cycle will be its last in the bear as the cycle is currently due to complete around the same time as BTC's. If BTC capitulates as expected, I doubt that ETH will continue in a bear market and will have a similar capitulation to BTC and not wait until the end of the next cycle which will complete around the start of May.

The difference in cycles was demonstrated at ATH when BTC hit ATH a full month earlier (BTC 17 Dec 17 and ETH 13 Jan 18).

The vertical lines on the chart show the start/end of each cycle and the horizontal lines are areas of previous support. I expect capitulation to happen in the lower of the two blue boxes and I believe it was begin from the higher of the two boxes.

I am currently short and I will go long after the capitulation event at the end of this cycle.