ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: 241 Break Signals Buying.

19 Jul 2017

ETHUSD Update: 241 Pivot resistance taken out in one day. This price action tells me that real buying has returned and that the possibility of trending back up into the 300s or higher has returned.

The 241 Level is the .382 of the recent bear swing. Even though price has retraced off this resistance, the fact that it was still compromised signals that the general selling pressure has lessened significantly. In my previous analysis, I wrote that I was long term neutral because of the 160 break, but now that 241 has been taken out, my outlook is bullish again. This does not mean I am buying at the highs of this swing though.

Positioning with attractive risk/reward requires a ton of patience especially in wild markets such as this one. In order for me to buy into this for a swing trade long, there are two support areas I will be watching for. 211 which is the .382 of the current upswing, and the 183 to 163 area which is related to the .618 of the current upswing as well. For me, price needs to retrace into one of these areas and then show reversal signals which can come in many forms (on an hourly time frame). Double bottom and higher low are my favorites, but a reversal candlestick on a larger time frame like a hammer, harami, or engulfing can also be appropriate (4 hour).

Determining risk will be a function of which area shows the reversal pattern. If the reversal shows up around 211, I do not have much structure to work with at the moment, but the 200 level should provide some psychological support and I consider that as my reference for a stop. Upside target at this point is a 241 retest, and then I want to see if I hold some into new highs. If the long signal appears in the 183 area, then 160 will be my point of reference for a stop. This is just a general idea of what I am thinking, my trade may be completely different depending on the market information at the time.

Also for those of you not familiar with the fundamental catalyst behind this move, this is what happened: The UASF is not going to happen because BTC miners came to a consensus regarding the software they are using to process the transactions on the blockchain. This removes all the uncertainty plaguing the market since the "8/1" drama. Which also goes to show, the BTC community has the ability to engineer market conditions just like the Federal Reserve. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but that's the feeling I get (and I don't trade on feelings). Just wanted to share.

In summary, the 241 break is a signal that serious buyers are back to support this market. The key to good entry is waiting for the next retracement and measuring risk from there. IF this market declines back below the 163 level again, it will cancel this bullish scenario. In this market, anything is possible and the best we can do is measure what we have at the moment, compare it to what just happened recently, and anticipate the future based on that information. I will be watching for reversals at the support levels mentioned above.

Comments and questions welcome.