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ETHUSD: Ethereum on way to ATH by September 8

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Ethereum has exited its August correction in Elliott Wave 4 of the run from the 1700 level in July. This was a triangle correction consisting of an A-B-C-D-E pattern and wave count. Immediately upon finishing wave E it accelerated into an impressive run of about 700 points into the middle 3800s, aided by a strong up-leg (wave D) in the Bitcoin chart. Today, while Bitcoin has entered its final down-leg of its triangle correction, ETH fell into a more or less horizontal pattern of correcting its own advance which may now be in the final stages, before the final wave of this move commences.

Based on the power of waves one and three of the run so far, the existing all-time high at about 4380 appears in easy reach of this move, being only some 500 points above the current high.

The Ethereum chart has been exhibiting a 150-hour Fibonacci time pattern of reaching significant points, local highs or local lows, in the chart since the bottom in July. This is perhaps somehow linked to weekly trading rhythms, but is definitely shorter than 168 hours. Yesterdays new ETH high again coincided closely with this 150-hour interval as shown by the vertical green lines and blue arrows.

Therefore, I am predicting that the ATH should be reached by the next interval, which is September 8, 2021.

Catatan

BTC pulled ETHUSD back to 3711 last night, providing a great entry point for the next seven days. The reward for being alert to this was a swift 270 point gain overnight to start teasing the 4000 level (@3985).

Catatan

First look above 4000. 4030 on Coinbase Pro. Expect some more battles here, there are probably a lot of shorts to liquidate in this area.

I phrased my subject line "to ATH *BY* September 8. Not "ON" September 8. The Fibonacci time periods fall close to peaks and bottoms.
350 to go.

Catatan

Three more days until the next Fib time line... ETH has inched sideways correcting last week's move up, and formed a strong base around 3900 for another leg up. Taking out 4000 decisively in the next day or so should cause a swift move to the ATH at 4384 (Coinbase). Then FOMO might hit the street and drive the market to 5500, or so, the top of the current channel, day or night.
We might be looking for correction then, with the old ATH as strong support to keep the market up there.

Catatan

Sunday 19:20, ETHUSD has not participated very strongly in BTCUSD rally to challenge 52,000. In fact it showed a clear divergence at times. The reason is that ETHBTC was still correcting from its own rise recently, but it seems to have reached a local bottom and turn around. ETHUSD has promptly started to synchronize better with BTCUSD in the last half hour or so. Nevertheless it traveled to the upper 3900s briefly, and is now try to push again toward 4000.
There is a wall of sell orders waiting for BTCUSD at 52000, and at 4000 for ETHUSD, but not as steep as BTC's task to consume supply.

Catatan

With more volume after the weekend, BTC was able to break into 52,000 territory this morning, but ETHUSD still failed to reach 4000. But after corrections of smaller degree fifth waves, that pushed ETHUSD down into 3800 territory, both appear fully synchronized now, and BTCUSD, ETHUSD, and ETHBTC have the same direction. Perhaps the next push over 52k by BTC will give ETH enough momentum and volume to break 4k.

Both appear poised for major advances this week.

Catatan

This appears to be a good trend channel for ETHUSD right now.
Wave counts are certainly in flux, and some additional ones are available that use the last triangle waves as 1/2 base for the current sideways action, because of the apparent symmetry in durations.
It makes for a good spring board toward the ATH. Just need to start bouncing...

Catatan

Turns out that ETHBTC is still not finished with its correction, diving south while BTCUSD was breaking beyond 52000, so ETHUSD has not participated much in this rally, but has been holding on in the mid-3900 level. Its time will come too.

Catatan

Did everyone buy $30 of Bitcoin for El Salvador?
The price was cheap.

So, we have less that 24 hours till the next occurrence of the 150-hour interval. Will it be a local high or a low? The odds are probably somewhere in the middle.

Anyhow, a powerful correction really clear the air, and cleans up the wave count. We don't have to wonder about the details anymore of the last months.

I adjusted the overall level of degrees slightly to fit my overall LT counts better. There still is the unresolved issue of the 1/2 sequence at the 1700-bottom, but that lies in the future, perhaps next year some time.

I was expecting this correction next week perhaps, after the bulls squeeze as much as possible out of the rally. I read that open interest was steadily on the decline and that this was not surprising.

The correction in ETHUSD was about 34% (if it is finished), but what is more important, it perfectly fits the Elliott wave guide lines of falling into the lower area of the fourth wave correction zone of one lower degree. That alone makes this wave count highly likely correct, and confirms the relative degree relations, assuming that it is finished.

The market internals are reportedly solid, and we should expect this dip to be bought up in a short amount of time.

Catatan

Here is the structure of this correction as I see it right now. I am sure other counts could be made, but this seems pretty reasonable right now. The duration was exactly 4 days, within 30 minute accuracy.

Catatan

I hope I got the degrees sequenced right. Forgive, if not.

Catatan

Cryptoquant also reports that the correction was driven by the condition in the futures market:

Quote:
"Looking at the All Exchanges' Netflow, we can't see any significant inflow/sell pressure from the spot market.
On the other hand, the volume of Long Liquidation in less than 1 hour can confirm that this price fluctuation was majorly Futures Market-driven.
Considering the massive drop in the Open Interest, it's expected that a substantial number of high-leverage positions (attributed to inexperienced players) are flushed from the market."

Well, EWT tells us that the futures market was just the catalyst or trigger for the correction. The correction was already on the horizon with the complete count of wave five from bottom up.

Catatan

For BTC, on-chain conditions have not changed at all, and are bullish. Spot reserves are continuing to shrink at the exchanges as whales and miners are accumulating and holding. There has been no unusual selling, in fact the third largest Whale is reported to have added to their wallets.
In short this was just a technical correction, as is usual after every completed five-wave advance: 1-2-3-4-5--A-B-C. The size is just a matter of degree.

Catatan

September targets for Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 in larger degree (Minor or Intermediate) wave 3 are $4193, $4463, or $4937.

Catatan

Perhaps at the critical point here, for the correction to go lower, if that is what's coming, or continue recovery.

Catatan

If this breaks to the upside in this leg at 3570, I would assign a 1-2, 1-2 sequence, but it looks more like a more complex correction, perhaps like this chart. It can only be confirmed by the completion of the E-wave, and some break-out from there.

Catatan

This is actually a very common formation in second waves, as second waves should not be pure triangles.

Catatan

This assignment also fits BTC very well. The E wave needs to be finished and then we should see a five-wave sequence out of the triangle.

Catatan

Ethereum finally printed its correction low on Sept 21, with a depth of just under the logarithmic 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding 5-wave advance from 1700. This was followed by first and second waves in the new leg up, which still needs to be identified as either a third wave or fifth wave of larger degree. In any case confirmation of the 1-2 sequence is full progress with very bullish-looking impulses today.

Interestingly enough, as I am writing this, we are approaching (n the next hour or so) the end of the 22nd 150-hour interval from the all-time-high in May, and the 11th period since the beginning of the impulses from c. 1700 on July 20/21. I have talked about this 150-hour rhythm before, and indeed, the correction from May to July took 1650 hours (11 times 150), and the period form that point to today, took another 1650 hours, So the time of the summer correction was exactly the same as the time for the entire 8-wave (five up and three down) period ending tonight. I'll leave the meaning or philosophy of that up for discussion, only point out this remarkable statistic.
The market is only at 3160 at this moment, but I think much more upside is in the near future, and October should be a month for major advances for ETH and BTC.

Catatan

This is how I see the bottom activity right now. After the bottom of the correction ETH formed a sequence of two 1-2 combinations. The third wave of the second 1-2 is completed and has surpassed its first wave with a 1.618 multiple in size, and is now correcting in wave 4 which has so far achieved a retracement of wave 3 by 38.2%, landing exactly on the top price of wave 1. Of course, if it falls lower and travels into the range of wave 1 and 2, this 1-2-3 sequence would be invalidated, and we have to look for another interpretation. If that succeeds we should now expect the fifth wave to commence, which might have a target range of 3520 to 3650, given be the confluences of Fibonacci levels indicated in the chart. 3650 is the 1.618 extension for the third wave of the first 1-2 sequence at the bottom.

Catatan

Clearly, the call for upside trading was a little early. The confirmation of the 1-2 pattern was turned down by the bears. After bouncing on the 38.2% level (and top of wave 1) for a few hours, the structure fell apart and we got a deep retracement of 80 or 85% or so. The same count was not actually even possible in the Bitcoin chart, so we can now propose a unified view for both. This is that the entire structure since the correction bottom on Sept. 21 is likely just a single 1-2 sequence in which the second wave breaks down into the very distinct and large "humps" since. They break down perfectly into an A-B-C count with B being a subcount of a-b-c leading to the top of yesterday. We might be close now to the bottom of the final wave C, perhaps even past it, as the ETHUSD price has gone from about 2800 to 2890 or so. However, this appears to be a leading diagonal structure, which always bears the risk of a sharp and deep final retracement. In BTC the leading diagonal is not so clear, so the depth of retracement may end up being only medium in strength.
In any case, we are waiting for prices to break out of the downtrend channel from yesterday's top.

Catatan

We certainly got the break-out from that down-channel with a nice move up to about 2950 last night, only to be reversed once again in another down-leg that just took out the previous low by about 60 cents. Hmm. That invalidates that as another 1-2 candidate pair as it has to belong to the prior wave as a final retracement leg, which now has a clear three-wave structure and cannot be a simple C-wave anymore. The options are either a complex correction, WXY, of a single 1-2 sequence, or two 1-2 sequences. I'll post a chart when I have a correct wave count for either of them, but looking roughly, it may work out both ways. Further prolonged correction, can of course add to the complexity.

Catatan

Run bulls, run. We finally get a leg that exceeds its prior high. They are flirting with 3000, but really need 3200 to get out of the shadows.

Catatan

ETHUSD got 3200 alright,... 3280 actually, thanks to October Fest starting with Powell's opening greetings for a friendly relationship with the Crypto world.

This puts wave 3 in place in earnest, and activates targets of about 3460 for the second third wave, and about 3650 for the first (earlier) third wave, as projected in my earlier update here (9/27), if we count the proceedings since the correction low as two 1-2 sequences. This seems the perhaps most logical count right now.

Ethereum is lagging the performance of Bitcoin quite significantly right now, and that can be seen in the overnight crash of ETHBTC from 0.06969 to 0.06740, or over 3 1/3 %.

Catatan

Here is a chart of the latest action.

Catatan

It can be observed that ETH has just broken out of the correction channel and formed a new uptrend that I indicated with a pitch fork oriented with the help of a linear regression line (about two days old). It just happened that the price advance overnight stopped just on one of the Fib trend lines of that channel, probably not very significant though.

Catatan

According to plan, ETHUSD in wave ((3)) has almost reached the 1.618 extension of its wave ((1)) peak of September 26. It just got rejected at 3450, only $10 short of that target.

Catatan

The progress in wave ((3)) has been a nice trend channel of five waves. It is not clear yet whether subwave (5) is complete, but BTCUSD has also pulled back a bit.
But I can see the possibility that it is not yet finished, and that this might just be a fourth wave correction of even lower degree. Wave five has been a series of lower degree, unremarkable "bumps".

Catatan

Here is a preliminary wave count.

Catatan

Wave 3 of this fifth wave, labeled (5), looks like having extensions (the "bumps"), and it was over 262% of its presumed first wave, therefore this should make subwave 5 relatively short: 100% or even only 78% of wave 1. That provides targets of 3462 and 3476, not that far above my original estimate of 3460. After that we should see another correction.
Time will tell.

Catatan

ETH made it to 3469.95, by my data source. And the correction is in progress, 3429 currently. All according to plan.
There is a chance of another higher high, because we have the opportunity to actually count two 1-2 sequences at the bottom of this wave. It shouldn't go much higher, perhaps $10 only.

Here is the possibility:

Catatan

If that also develops according to this picture, then ETH should be in corrective mode for a few hours from now, until the next fifth wave commences for a gain of a couple hundred points. I think I had it at 3650 or so. A nice goal for the Sunday traders, until the profies come back on Monday, and take it all down again, for a larger correction.

Catatan

So far, so good. Got 3470 after a pull back, but it is not yet clear that this was enough for the second fifth wave.
Meanwhile, it is clear that BTCUSD is getting ready to pump again, having been building what looks like a long horizontal triangle correction, but may be something different in detail. In any case, the conditions are aligning for the next leg up. In BTC it should got beyond 50k, and for ETH probably something short of 3.7k.

Catatan

A deep retracement (so far almost 50%) confirms the wave count. It is going to take a bit of time to dig out of this, but it is a good starting point for the next leg up.

Catatan

After letting this correction simmer overnight, we find that it retraced almost 61.8% of the preceding 5-wave sequence, seemingly a perfect arrangement. But I had assigned it as a fourth wave of higher degree, labeled ((4)), which was to correspond to the ((1))-((2)) sequence of Sept. 26 through 29. The problem with this assignment now appears that this fourth wave never left the trend channel that it is correcting, and is not even a 23% retracement of the entire third wave. I was expecting more. The wave quite nicely filled that trend channel to the lower boundary. I think we have to reconsider the assignment of the wave of September 29, that I had assigne as a B-C completion of the larger degree ((1))-((2)), because it ended just pennies lower than it started. By the rules of the Elliott Wave Principle, a second wave cannot end below the start of wave one. But we may have to break this rule here to make sense of it all. In BTCUSD, this same wave ended higher than the start, making a proper 1-2 count easy. But here, I think, we need this wave now, but we have to let the market complete this entire run to be sure.

Catatan

Here is the larger scope view of market:

Catatan

You will notice the discrepancy in size of waves ((1))-((2)) and ((4)). They don't appear to be of the same degree, as the channel for ((1))-((2)) should be much wider.

Catatan

I think we are looking for another fifth wave in the existing channel to complete ((3)), and then a larger degree correction coming back to the current price levels, before ((v)) commences.

Catatan

As an alternative, it is possible that the recent high of today at about 3450 was just a B-wave of a larger A-B-C correction, which may require a final C-leg down, before the correction is complete. Corrections take time. The market needs to show a new high to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Catatan

The confirmation has come with a new trend channel high.
Let's see how we reach 3600 territory.
My target for the equivalent move in BTCUSD was about 50.2k, and the initial first wave of the new break-out points somewhat higher, 50.6 or so.

Catatan

So we got the answer (to the extra 1-2 puzzle) very swiftly, as ETHUSD added another 3-4 on top of yesterday's and got to 3489, and is in that fourth wave correction now. It can go deeper now, but likely will not penetrate past the fourth wave territory of one lower degree, which is the area between 3260 and 3345.

Catatan

23.6% (log) retracement would be 3308, and 38.2% is 3201. Nice entry points for a fifth wave trade. Likely it might be mostly horizontal though.

Catatan

The correction has reached just beyond the 23.6 percentile so far, to below 3300. Right on schedule. The pull back is well supported by our green zone as mentioned, and finally, we also have a break of the third-wave trend line, or trend channel, so we can be fairly confident of the position in the market.

I am not sure yet of the exact wave structure of this pullback, we only had a single progression down, which could possibly be counted as a zigzag, but also as a five-wave sequence. Reasonably we might expect a complex structure, such as a triangle, which will take time to proceed.

As a forecast of what's to come in terms of a fifth wave, we should not expect more than 100% of wave ((1)), more likely less, as the third wave was extended. Using the current correction low, there is confluence at about the 78% level with my previous estimate for the larger degree (first) third wave in the mid-3600s.

Finally, we will have to face a decision by the market to clear up whether the two 1-2 sequence at the bottom, shown here as i-ii and ((1))-((2)) are in fact separate waves, and not just a single, very large one/two sequence. This should also have a consequence for the size in time for the current correction waves.

Catatan

ETHUSD as well as BTCUSD have come away from this mornings bottom in the green zone with lots of volatility, in a what looks like a perfect 5-wave impulse.

Catatan

POP. BTC has a new high, close to 49,500. Interesting. For a while I was suspecting a B-wave fake.

Catatan

But I have an easy wave count for completion of this correction, so they are in wave five.

Catatan

Well, I don't see any more bullishness in that wave, so it probably was indeed just a part of the B-wave. If the market drops down a bit from here... it is because the correction is not finished.

Catatan

Trading is very compressed with Bitcoin's looming $50,000 resistance line in reach. It failed to break the level twice already, coming within $200 of that line that was a fierce battleground a month or so ago. I think this is spilling over into Ethereum, as it still trades in rough directional synchronization. Without BTC, ETH won't run either. So we are seeing roughly sideway action right now.

Catatan

Having the 50,000 barrier broken by Bitcoin overnight, ETHUSD also added a hundred points to get close to its previous local high, and seems poised for more in an uncompleted impulse progression.

Catatan

It looks like this fifth wave is going to be extended with what looks like two 1-2 sequences.

BTCUSD 51,400
ETHUSD 3500

Catatan

ETHUSD 3625.

Getting close to my original wave three target for the 1.618 multiple (3650).

The two 1-2 wave assignments I had marked in the last chart, turned out to be 1,2,3, and 4 of a leading diagonal and the top after that (since posting the last chart) was its fifth wave. Leading diagonals almost always retrace VERY deeply, and this was cetrainly the case here, this morning. But the recovery out of them is often swift, and swift it was... printing a remarkable third wave of almost 300 points. From the structure of this impulse, it seems to me it is not finished yet, I think the current pullback into the 3500s is just a fourth wave in smaller degree. It might run another 100 points, but fifth wave can also be very long.

Catatan

ETHBTC, which has been on a downtrend for some time, finally rallied too, allowing ETH to catch up with BTC a little bit. The impulse has a five-wave structure already, so perhaps it won't allow ETHUSD any further upside until some correction plays out.

Catatan

Despite the daily rally, ETHBTC is still correcting overall though, causing the generally poor performance of ETHUSD vs. Bitcoin. It got close 0.08 at the beginning of the month, but has been trading down since. It is correcting its advance in a multi-months diagonal from the June lows around 0.055. I am not sure how deep the correction should go, as leading diagonals retrace deeply, but it is possible that it could turn to the upside soon, which will accelerate BTCUSD also. Currently at about 0.0655.

Catatan

Despite the progress that Bitcoin has made in recent days, ETHUSD is still suppressed and somewhat range-limited in the 3400-3650 zone. It appears to be struggling with the 1.618 log Fib level from wave one out of the large September correction. This was the first reasonable target for that third wave and it has held the token in check so far. A break through this level might accelerate this market toward the 4000 mark. The 2.618 level is at 4001.

The smaller degree wave count of the last week or so is still unclear to me. Two possibilities come to mind. The last few waves could be counted as a diagonal 1-2-3-4-5 as show in large red labels, or also as a sequence of two 1/2 pairs. The former would require some deep correction once completed, while the other should send the market much higher. If Bitcoin continues its journey up, we should probably prefer the latter count here.

Catatan

ETHBTC may have finally found a bottom last night at 0.064. It is showing some green today. In any case, as long as it continues its weakness, ETHUSD is going to continue its trouble keeping up with Bitcoin.

Catatan

Now being squeezed into the vertex between its rising trend line and the 1.618 Fib level, ETHUSD should pop or drop pretty soon some time today, it seems.

Catatan

Chances are that the squeeze will break very soon:

Catatan

ETHBTC is also still on an uptrend, to the detriment of BTCUSD, which dropped about 1k, seems to be on the rebound though. The break-out, however small, should be to the upside.

Catatan

Not much of any break-out, up or down, ETHUSD just keeps grinding higher, now past the Fib level, but has the resistance at 3676 overhead, from the "B" wave retrace of the large September correction. It seems that this third wave should just keep advancing to the September high (4030) for now.

Catatan

We finally got a break to the downside. This seems to indicate that the wedge might have been an ending diagonal to complete the fifth wave. The drop was not deep though, less than 100 points. More action is needed to make a decision.

Catatan

ETHUSD seems to be looking up right now, after seemingly completing a fourth wave last night.
Here is my latest attempt at counting this position:

Catatan

The wave degrees are still screwed up in this, I now see, and some waves are unassigned, but it is supposed to indicate the general idea right now.

Catatan

I am not sure of the size of the move up, with all this compressed trading in the last day or more. A lot will depend on the strength of resistance BTC encounters for the weekend. If we have already seen the first wave, the move should at least break 3700 for now.

Catatan

Here is another possible wave count.
1 hour bars

Catatan

ETHUSD 4100: Finally on way to a new ATH.
The push from BTC to 67000 was key.

Catatan

The title of this topic has finally come to fruition, at least ETH is close. It missed the ATH only be less than ten points.

Here is a wave analysis of the last major wave of that push, and the correction/shake-out of today.

I am quite confident, that this correction was only a fourth wave. It would probably have gone lower if the top had been a fifth wave in highest degree.

Catatan

This means that the next wave up should take out the ATH and post new highs. But it is not confirmed yet that the correction is in fact finished.

Catatan

Run to new ATH?

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