ETH/BTC Risk Reward Trade

12 Sep 2018

The sentiment on ethereum is really low. Vitalik made some comments that spooked people and everyone has come up with a story that all alts are doomed and that ICO's have to sell to raise cash. To some degree that is true, but I think its being overblown.

I can tell you that professional traders love to stick it to retail using stories like this. In the next 12 months I could see ethereum going much lower, but I believe we are going to see a significant bounce. Even if pro's want to get out, they won't capitulate all the way down and sell the bottom. So I think we are getting to a point where its worth a trade.

Catching a Knife

Buying here is catching a knife but its the most likely bounce area until much much lower so I scale in.

Usually in these cases, you either see pro's buy it up before the low a few months ago or they clean stops under .023 as that is an area retail will likely put a stop. So I'll have buy orders here and below. I also have alerts on the 2 broken trend lines. If we break up, then I will buy both of those then put stops at local lows as failing AFTER a break of trend would be bearish. in other words, part of my position is buying support the other part is buying confirmation.

Keep in mind there is risk here but to me its worth it as scaling out should give me approximately 4 to 1 depending on my final price, but even 3 to 1 if we were to dip a bit lower and take part of my position out. Ideal cover is .045 to .05

12 Sep 2018

Catatan

The blue line on RSI was a 4 hour chart I was looking at. You can see in March that we bottomed with the daily RSI making a double bottom, then lower low in the same way as we are forming now. This is part of the reason I'm taking a long here even though we could go down under .023. Pro traders will buy it now to lock out people buying the December 2017 low or they will run it just below to stop out retail.

13 Sep 2018

Catatan

This was probably a bit of luck to get a sharp rally after taking this trade. I had big gains and we are close to a supply zone so I closed this long. This is just a general rule for me when I get this big of a gain in less than 24 hours in a bear market.

I'll re-evaluate this trade after I see price action. Because its a bear market, this might be a relief bounce before we head a bit lower. IF we consolidate here and don't retest the low or we have a shallow pullback, I'll consider taking another long.

13 Sep 2018

Catatan

This is what I'm looking for. Hold gains, then retest the breakout would be a good risk reward with a tight stop. Otherwise, an ascending triangle would be another consolidation I would look to buy a breakout. And of course if we have another big move higher I would look to rebuy consolidation. In other words, I don't mind buying higher if ETH/BTC can prove to me its actually trying to reverse and not just bouncing.