ETHBTC Consolidation

1 Jun 2016

For the past 3 months ETHBTC has been consolidating inside a larger triangle pattern (blue).
Yesterday, price broke away from a lower S/R level near 0.0235 and reached once again the 0.02725 zone which acted as support and resistance multiple times during March / April (green box). In doing so, it completed the wolfe wave pattern (yellow, to the right,) reaching point 3 price level from a 5 prime position (better visible in lower time frames). Another WW (yellow, the March/April one, to the left) also hit its 1-4 target line during 1st half of may, before breaking significantly above it to form the peak on May 20th.

Based on the fact that BTCUSD seems somewhat overstretched right now and primed for another correction before the halving pump continues, my best guess is we will see 0.030 price levels later this week, with a lower probability spike to the upper blue triangle trendline, before testing the lower blue trendline again near 0.022-0.0235 later on.

tl;dr: buy 0.0235-0.022, sell 0.030-0.033

14 Jun 2016

Catatan

Bitcoins pre-halving rally turned out stronger than anticipated. Instead of testing the upper trendline of this triangle, the inverse correlation of ETHBTC pushed price towards the lower boundary first. Support held firmly, and 0.22-023 turned out to be a good long entry as expected.
Today ETH bulls showed their strength while BTC was busy consolidating. However, so far the relief rally wasn't able to stay above resistance at 0.027, and with BTC still missing at least one more leg up another visit to 0.022 remains possible.
Aim for a long entry again at 0.0235-0.021 if you already took profit. Otherwise, 0.30-0.33 remains a good target zone. Be careful with your shorts, as a strong breakout of the triangle to the upside in conjuction with a BTC correction may occur at any time. Expect BTC profit takers pile in on ETH.