National Bank of Greece (NBG) - Comprehensive Analysis

18 Jul

In one week from today, the annual general meeting of the shareholders of the National Bank of Greece (NBG) will convene, where, among other matters, they will decide on the distribution of a dividend for the first time in nearly 15 years, amounting to €0.37 (€0.36 net).

NBG is currently attracting investment interest for two main reasons:

Dividend Distribution: Investors are buying the stock to ensure they receive the dividend.
Upcoming Privatization: The privatization is scheduled for the fall.
There is a belief that the stock will recover from the dividend cut-off, as the placement for the remaining 18.39% held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) will not take place below €8.

This is considered a safe bet, especially as recent analyses predict the stock price could rise even above €10.

Axia: Raises the target price for the stock to €10.50 from €8.80 previously.
UBS: Boosts the target price to €11.

The analysis of technical indicators and financial data of the National Bank of Greece presents a positive outlook for the current and future trajectory of the stock.

Technical Analysis

Price:
The current price is €8.186. The price has broken above the Fibonacci 0.618 level at €8.124, indicating upward momentum.

Moving Averages (EMA):

EMA 20: €7.967

EMA 50: €7.962

EMA 100: €7.912

EMA 200: €7.653

EMA 20 (€7.968): The price is above the 20-day EMA, indicating short-term upward momentum.

EMA 50 (€7.962): The price is above the 50-day EMA, indicating medium-term upward momentum.

EMA 100 (€7.912): The price is above the 100-day EMA, indicating long-term upward momentum.

EMA 200 (€7.653): The price is above the 200-day EMA, indicating strong overall upward momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

RSI (14): 64.14, indicating that the stock is in the bullish zone but not yet overbought.
MACD:

Histogram: 0.0244 (positive, indicating upward momentum)
MACD: 0.0325 (MACD line is above the signal line, indicating an upward trend)
Signal: 0.0080
Pivot Points

Support Levels:
S1: €7.778
S2: €7.610
S3: €7.464

Resistance Levels:
R1: €8.128
R2: €8.270
R3: €8.418

Central Pivot Point:
P: €7.940

The price is above the central pivot point (P: €7.940), indicating an upward trend. The price is approaching the first resistance level (R1: €8.128) and has the potential to test higher resistance levels (R2: €8.270 and R3: €8.418).

Conclusion Pivot Points:
Upward Trend: The current price is above the central pivot point, indicating an upward trend in the market.

Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate support at €7.778 (S1), with further support at €7.610 (S2) and €7.464 (S3) if the price falls.
Immediate resistance at €8.128 (R1), with further resistance at €8.270 (R2) and €8.418 (R3) if the price continues to rise.

Performance Metrics:

1 week: +3.65%
1 month: +4.31%
3 months: +16.47%
6 months: +18.12%
Year to date: +30.17%
1 year: +32.06%

Positive returns for all periods (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, year to date, and 1 year) indicate a continuous and steady upward trajectory of the stock. The significant return over the past year (+32.06%) strengthens confidence in its bullish outlook.

Overall Assessment:
Based on the updated technical indicators, the stock of the National Bank of Greece continues to exhibit strong upward momentum.

Specifically:
The stock prices are above all significant moving averages (EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200), indicating a stable upward trend in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term horizons.
The RSI is in a healthy bullish zone (63.90), suggesting that the stock is not overbought and has room for further growth.
The positive MACD histogram and the fact that the MACD line is above the signal line reinforce the stock's bullish outlook.

Conclusion:
The National Bank of Greece appears to be in a solid upward trend based on both technical indicators and financial results. Investors may consider that the stock still has room for growth; however, they should closely monitor technical indicators and financial results to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.