Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024
Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels after the rally
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5284-88 (major), 5276, 5259 (major), 5245-48 (major), 5236, 5230, 5219-21 (major), 5213, 5208, 5200-5197 (major), 5191, 5186, 5177, 5168-71 (major), 5163, 5155, 5145 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5295, 5302 (major), 5307 (major), 5313, 5320, 5328 (major), 5338, 5348 (major), 5355, 5363-66 (major), 5380, 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5412, 5428 (major), 5438-42 (major), 5450, 5460-63 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Choppy Range: Be prepared for potential choppiness within the 5302-5288 range. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies if this pattern persists.
Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure that has formed since Thursday. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5284-88, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5259 and 5245-48 (triangle back-test).
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement, and focus on 5307 and potentially 5348 if we get that far.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally.
Bull Case
Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5307 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5320, 5338, then 5348.
Support Holds: As long as 5284-88 holds as support, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if 5307 breaks out, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5284 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 25th, 2024
Federal Reserve Updates: Analysis of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, economic projections, and implications for future monetary policy. Focus on how market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 may have shifted, and the continued focus on inflation data.
Inflation and Economic Data: Discussion of the latest CPI figures, job market data, and their potential impact on the Fed's approach to managing inflation.
Market Reactions: Examine how global markets have reacted to the Fed's decisions, including equity indices, treasury yields, and the dollar's performance.
Global Economic Outlook: Updates from Vanguard on economic expectations, contrasting the U.S. with trends in the Eurozone and U.K.
Lessons from Bank Failures: Reflect on the lessons learned from recent stress in regional banks and discuss implications for the financial system's overall stability.
Energy Transition: Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the electrification of energy markets.
Stock Market Sentiment: Review market sentiment after the Fed decision and the potential for near-term changes.
Remember: The market might be consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels after the rally
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5284-88 (major), 5276, 5259 (major), 5245-48 (major), 5236, 5230, 5219-21 (major), 5213, 5208, 5200-5197 (major), 5191, 5186, 5177, 5168-71 (major), 5163, 5155, 5145 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5295, 5302 (major), 5307 (major), 5313, 5320, 5328 (major), 5338, 5348 (major), 5355, 5363-66 (major), 5380, 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5412, 5428 (major), 5438-42 (major), 5450, 5460-63 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Choppy Range: Be prepared for potential choppiness within the 5302-5288 range. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies if this pattern persists.
Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure that has formed since Thursday. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5284-88, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5259 and 5245-48 (triangle back-test).
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement, and focus on 5307 and potentially 5348 if we get that far.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally.
Bull Case
Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5307 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5320, 5338, then 5348.
Support Holds: As long as 5284-88 holds as support, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if 5307 breaks out, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5284 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 25th, 2024
Federal Reserve Updates: Analysis of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, economic projections, and implications for future monetary policy. Focus on how market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 may have shifted, and the continued focus on inflation data.
Inflation and Economic Data: Discussion of the latest CPI figures, job market data, and their potential impact on the Fed's approach to managing inflation.
Market Reactions: Examine how global markets have reacted to the Fed's decisions, including equity indices, treasury yields, and the dollar's performance.
Global Economic Outlook: Updates from Vanguard on economic expectations, contrasting the U.S. with trends in the Eurozone and U.K.
Lessons from Bank Failures: Reflect on the lessons learned from recent stress in regional banks and discuss implications for the financial system's overall stability.
Energy Transition: Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the electrification of energy markets.
Stock Market Sentiment: Review market sentiment after the Fed decision and the potential for near-term changes.
Remember: The market might be consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
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