ES - December 4th - Daily Trade Plan

15 jam yang lalu

December 4th- Daily Trade Plan - 8:30am

*Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) *

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My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.

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You can review my trade plan from yesterday and the daily note updates to see which levels we grabbed points from.

Overnight we have been building a nice bull flag between 6854-6870. Looking at the bigger picture price looks like it wants to go higher and break out of this range we have been. My general lean today is that we have a flush and reclaim of 6854 before heading up. We might only get as low as 6861. IF price loses 6818 then we should move lower.

Key Levels Today

1. 6861 flush and reclaim
2. 6854 flush and reclaim
3. 6847 flush and reclaim
4. 6837 flush and reclaim
5. 6818 flush and reclaim (wait for reclaim of 6824)

Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher.

I will post an update around 10am EST
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels
5. White shows overhead resistance/targets

14 jam yang lalu

Catatan

9:10am - Update

As I have said many times (including yesterday) that when price clears the overnight high prior to the NYSE open it can be a failed breakout. Not saying that is the case every time, but it has a higher probability of failing and then resuming higher. I will not be chasing at this level and will be patient. Any back test of 6871 is a potential back test entry, but ideally the loss of 6872 down to 6861 and then reclaim 6872 would be bullish after the open. I will wait and see what happens in the first 15 mins of the open and then assess.

14 jam yang lalu

Catatan

9:41am - Price flushed 6872 down to 6861 then lost it down to 6859 and reclaimed 6861. I was able to take a position at 6863 and my stop is at 6859. I sold 3/4 of my position at 6871 and my runner is at break even. Price needs to hold above 6873 to keep going higher.

13 jam yang lalu

Catatan

9:46am - Update

My runner stopped out and price looks like it needs to go lower. Next level up is 6854. Flush and reclaim should be good for some points. Below that and we might be selling off faster. I would be patient at this point. reclaim 6862 is an opportunity if we dont flush 6854 first.

13 jam yang lalu

Catatan

10:03am - Update

I took my last position of the day. I entered at 6854 with a stop at 6849. Price needs to clear 6854 to keep moving higher. If we lose 6850 then we will most likely keep moving lower into levels below.

12 jam yang lalu

Catatan

11:03am - Update

Price flushed down to 6844 and reclaimed 6847 and rallied to 6868. We might get one more flush and reclaim of 6847. Any reclaim of 6854 should keep price moving higher. If we lose 6844 we will most likely need to flush down to 6812, 6801.

9 jam yang lalu

Catatan

1:50pm - Update

Price has been very choppy since the 9:30am open. We flushed below the overnight low of 6854 and you can see that lots of buying was happening below the overnight low. We eventually followed through, and we have been building another base above 6860-6871. Technically price is still bullish to the upside IF price can clear the 6872 area. Until then we have a higher probability of price losing 6854 and taking out the 6847 session low. I was able to grab some points today, but I was unable to take a trade at the 10:30am flush and reclaim of 6847 as I noted above at 11:03am. I had already taken my 2nd trade and was stopped out, and I did not want to get chopped up again by rushing into a 3rd trade. We have the Fed meeting next week and my general lean is that we get a breakout higher this afternoon or tomorrow as we head into the Fed meeting next week. IF price loses 6847 we will need to look for quality levels below. I will post my trade plan tomorrow at 6am EST.